To Person REUTERS Robert Shiller winner of the Nobel prize in Economics in 2013 and a developer of an influence is price range real estate Index. The US Economist doubts the pure rationality of investors and advocates for a Reform of the financial system.
MIRROR ONLINE: Mr Shiller, they deal with the influence of Narrative, so meaningful narratives on the economy. Here in Davos is spoken a lot this year about the next possible downturn. We will not talk us into the crisis?
Robert Shiller: Yes, that is the impression of some, I get that, too. Towards the end of last year, the people seemed to suddenly start to talk in more pessimistic tones, before the situation calmed somewhat. I tend to see this as an epidemic: Negative thoughts are contagious. The causes I see as a puzzle, and the different thickness of flu outbreaks is difficult to explain.
MIRROR ONLINE: As seen Davos would be an incubator for the virus?
Shiller: (laughs) Yeah, I hope you catch nothing.
MIRROR ONLINE: but There are also real risks. Currently, there is such a large topic, such as the growth in China subsides, European and US companies see falling sales. This is not dangerous?
Shiller: . But I believe that Narratives play a similar role. Our reaction in the West depends on the stories we hear from China.
MIRROR ONLINE: is A large issue here is the industry 4.0 and the resulting risk of job loss.
Shiller: This reminds me of the late twenties. At that time, the Narrative of the techno started logically-related unemployment. As it rose, then there may be other reasons, in fact, made the people, the technology responsible for what led to dwindling consumption. I think this is a potential risk That rising unemployment will automatically be declared with the machines that replace humans.
MIRROR ONLINE: Certain Jobs are actually replaced today by machines. This is no more than a Narrative?
Shiller: . But at the beginning of the thirty years, much has been talked about robots, which Jobs to take. Even then, it was believed that the development was totally out of control and the automation reach its culmination. We have this discussion, so for about 100 years.
MIRROR ONLINE: A further real danger of a trade war between the USA and China. You think Donald Trump might relent?
Shiller: He could at least change the subject. Trump would never admit that he changes his mind, but he does it anyway.
MIRROR ONLINE: Trump even the Europeans, particularly German car manufacturers threatens. You think it’s possible that he makes all of this case?
Shiller: , Or he is impeached.
MIRROR ONLINE: do you think it likely?
Shiller: It’s tricky, because the polarization in the USA is so high. As the leader of the Democrats, I would have assumed perhaps even Trumps offer and compromise, according to which he gets money for the border wall to Mexico, and migrants for three years before deportation are protected. Give him his wall! We should let him try. I think the wall will not change the current illegal immigration – and it’s all for him insulting Graffiti.
MIRROR ONLINE: foreign Minister Mike Pompeo pointed out in Davos that the US economy is growing much faster than in other industrial countries. Anything seems to make Trump.
Shiller: It seems to me plausible that he is indeed, for growth – but not necessarily for good reasons. Trump has lowered the company’s taxes. This drives the stock markets and could increase the demand. And he lives a pompous life-style: He says in his books, you should specify that this is the way to success. Perhaps people spend more, in order to mimic Trump.
MIRROR ONLINE: , the spurs is the Brexit. So far, the financial markets have reacted only in certain areas: The exchange rate of the pound has fallen, as has the real estate prices in London. These reactions are rational?
Shiller: I’m usually always fast, that something is irrational. But anyone who owns an apartment in London, might in the future even there. So it is rational that the real estate prices fall.
MIRROR ONLINE: And the so far moderate reaction of the stock markets, which is also rational?
Shiller: I think the stock market in a country is never rational. And the British stock market has long been cheap, even before the Brexit. Maybe I could (laughs) to invest .
MIRROR ONLINE: What happens if there is no agreement and it comes to apply a harsh, unfair Brexit?
Shiller: That makes it difficult for the company to conduct its business. It sounds so bad. Also in the sense of the Narrative: There will be stories about people who do not have a European business as usual – and that could be strengthened.
MIRROR ONLINE: it Would also be bad for the European Narrative for the EU as a Whole?
Shiller: Yes, some people are talking about the European dream and the European project. These are motivating factors. In my book I deal with the American dream, it’s about mutual respect and that everyone has the same chances of success. The Brexit seems to me to fit in.
MIRROR ONLINE: you have told us years ago in an Interview that Angela Merkel can get in the US a lot of respect, because it is seen as compassionate. Now your book is nearing the end, the appearance could have been this year in Davos, perhaps her last. You think the Americans will miss Merkel?
Shiller: Some, but not all.
MIRROR ONLINE: Who will you miss?
Shiller: I can’t say exactly. But there is this simple narrative, that they have left millions of Muslim immigrants to Germany. Trump-followers to see you so negative and there are many unwavering Trump-trailer. So it could be one of Merkel with Barack Obama: There is a very strong split of opinion about both.
MIRROR ONLINE: Will miss you personally to Merkel?
Shiller: Yes, I think so. She stood for an enlightened Person in a new Germany.
MIRROR ONLINE: there Is one other Person who could take the leadership role on the world stage in the future? Perhaps, The President Of France Emmanuel Macron?
Shiller: Yes, but in the case of Macron, it looks like it would slip off. And the British leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn is also not so appealing. I don’t know it.
MIRROR ONLINE: But this would not be a Problem for Europe, if there is no leader?
Shiller: Yes, that’s true. Who will be Merkel’s successor in Germany?
MIRROR ONLINE: As the party boss has recently Kramp-Karrenbauer Merkel’s Annegret Items. It is also here in Davos.
Shiller: Ah, Yes, again a woman, I remember. I have tried to learn your name.