The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has no coalition partners more: On Sunday Panagiotis Kammenos declared his resignation. The Minister of defence and chief of the right-wing populist party “Independent Greeks” justified this step with the Macedonia Deal to end the decades-long name dispute with the neighboring country.

This agreement will make it impossible for his office to continue to engage in, said Kammenos. In the last elections in September 2015, his party had won seven seats in the Greek Parliament.

Panos Kammenos

The Syriza party of Prime Tsipras comes to 145 members in Total, there are 300 seats in the Parliament. Up to his resignation, Kammenos’ party was thus an important majority of buyers.

Loses Tsipras now the Power?

no. The Premier would have to lose the no-confidence vote in Parliament, which he has for this week’s set. The debate will begin on Tuesday, with the vote expected Wednesday night. Tsipras’s chances of surviving the vote, there is a good.

Kammenos will not support his Ex-coalition partner is likely. The Prime Minister can count probably four – deputies of the Independent Greeks and at least two other parliamentarians who are either independent, or against your own party will vote.

after the vote of no confidence?

no. Tsipras has declared that he wants to stay the full designated four years to October in the office. But He relies on the support of Ad-hoc majorities renegade parliamentarians – at least a problematic situation.

The Premier’s party is already a cross in the criticism. The Opposition accuses him of, he is pursuing a cynical policy of back room deals to stay in Power. The far more realistic scenario: Tsipras will get some legislation through the Parliament – such as the increase in the basic income and probably for the may elections.

Why has Kammenos leave the coalition?

Kammenos declared publicly that he could not support a government which intends to ratify in the name deal with Macedonia. The agreement provides that Greece’s small neighbour is renamed in the North in “Northern Macedonia”. In return, Athens agreed not to block more against the accession of this Republic in the Nato, and also the inclusion of the EU accession, to block negotiations.

The contract was already ratified in Skopje. Tsipras plans, the decision at the end of January to the Parliament for a vote. Kammenos’s withdrawal from the government will not bring the contract to Fail. Tsipras can count on the votes of the “Independent Greeks” and other members.

Why has Kammenos leave the coalition?

At first glance, the end of the government looks like a painful separation between the two coalition partners. In fact, it plays Kammenos and Tsipras in the cards, since you can now keep track of both their own political goals. Their political cooperation based on an Anti-bailout Agenda. So far, this was the glue that held together both.

but in August, the last of the EU aid programme is run, there is this unifying theme. Tsipras and Kammenos now hope that you can pull out of the apparently well-prepared political divorce a Benefit of Tsipras in the office stops and Kammenos assures political Survival.

What is hoped Kammenos of this step?

The party of Kammenos is in the polls badly. With his hard stance in the name dispute with Macedonia, he hopes to win votes. Heads of government abroad – especially Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) – have congratulated Tsipras to the Deal. In the West of Macedonia, is seen the agreement as an important contribution to the stabilisation of the Balkans, by the can be pushed back the influence of Russia and Turkey in the explosive Region.

But In Greece, the Deal is extremely unpopular; about 70 percent of the population reject it, according to surveys. A new wave of protests is planned across the country. Now, free of Tsipras, could Kammenos received probably a coalition with other small right splinter parties.

What Tsipras?

Tsipras no longer adheres to the Stigma, with a right-wing populist the Power to share, the put is often a questionable behavior. This gives him the opportunity to pursue its core strategy before the elections and to stage: to convince The Greeks that he is most in need of a radical populist, a moderate, pragmatic left-political-leader has changed.

Tsipras believes, he is for the voters of the center more attractive. He has every reason to believe that his former coalition will succeed in choosing, because Kammenos is likely to target with his campaign mainly to voters who have previously voted for the largest opposition party – the conservative Nea Dimokratia party. According to recent polls, new democracy leads in points, with up to 12 percent. Party leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis is considered the favorite for the Post of the next Greek Prime Minister.

What is the meaning of the end of the coalition government for Greece and the Eurozone?

Even if Tsipras, the confidence vote on Wednesday survives, will begin in Greece, a toxic Phase of political polarization and the country are facing a risky, long-drawn election campaign. For the economy, the preset time traditionally brings bad news:

The Greek population might consume less, thus less money to spend, which reduces economic growth. In addition, the with international lenders agreed reforms could be delayed; at the same time, the temptation of more money to spend than there is growing.

in addition, the global economy, a deteriorating climate, and Greece is reluctant to continue to borrow money from the markets and to prove that it can stand on its own two feet. Most analysts believe, therefore, that rapid elections would be the Best for Greece.

Sam Yoon has many years of experiences in journalism. He has covered such areas as information technology, science, sports and politics. Yoon can be reached at 82-2-6956-6698.