There was in the past years, plenty of the Euro crisis and the banking crash, Brexit vote, and crashes in emerging markets, an angry Donald Trump and months long not governance in Berlin, diesel scandal and Italian election shock. All suitable, from historians, even as the historical crises with economically serious consequential damage.

Only the German economy seems to have nothing really to Mitkriseln. Since 2010 is here reported for the new year, that more has been produced, there are again more Jobs in the country – and for some time also have more Surpluses in the state budget. In spite of all the crises.

the economy to a real Cologne neighbourhood of the basic law? Et would have still jot jegange.

similarly, the forecasts for 2019 so the sound probably. In this case, the law might fail for the first time. The data obscure that the German economy has become since the times of the Agenda 2010 is very much more susceptible to global shocks. Not only has led in the past years (yet) on the crisis, because the economic strength is also a lot of luck came. Not a good Omen for the begun year. The shocks could this time be a number to big.

to come, It could soon reverberate fatal that Germany has placed in front of a loud roar the once supposedly dwindling competitiveness in the two-thousanders, above all, lower costs, and more Export instead of consumption and investments in the country out of the crisis. Now, a spectacular big part of the economy depends on performance, how well German Goods abroad to sell – which has to do only partly with German quality, but especially with how well the Rest of the world the economy is doing.

at the beginning of the zero years, exports accounted for less than a third of the German gross domestic product – which was issued by the people for consumption in the domestic, 56 percent. In the past year the export ratio was just under 47 per cent, and the share of Consumption of only 52.5 per cent.

so Much, also, to the question of how well the upturn in the people in the country. Due to the stop. In local new equipment, the company invested at the peak of the boom in the year 2000 amounts of money in the amount of 8.4 percent of gross domestic product – today it is 6.6 percent. Say: The economy is much stronger on demand from abroad.

How quickly a nation tilts in any other major industry, the economy

there is a Lot of export to great when the economy is doing in the world. How fatal the export dependence in bad times, can seem, showed, as the Euro crisis in 2012, came to a head. At that time, the German export companies are reported in surveys to dramatically decline in sales prospects – there are two quarters in which the economy as a whole shrank followed. Similar happened to 2014/15 and, more recently, since again strong decline in transactions were announced: The export prospects have worsened since a year rapidly – and lo and behold: The economy grew in 2018 at the end of only 1.5 instead of part initially expected, almost three percent.

as soon as in this country, the nation tilts in almost any other large industry, the economy. This is also reflected in the exchange values. The German share index Dax fell in the course of the past year, more than the French and as strong as the Italian. In the local share index also more and more companies with a high export business are represented than elsewhere.

More on the topic of Auto, banks, real estate, aviation, commercial, energy Three risks for German companies. And three chances

the thing ran out of for the most part, kind of good, is no guarantee. Because:

After the great financial crisis, the Federal government relied on economic stimulus packages. As of 2012, escalated the Euro crisis, the global economy to compensate for prima – what could the benefit of German exporters. To do this, Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank, helped by promising to buy loads of bonds to save the Euro and the economy in Europe. Later, when the emerging countries kriselten, delivery it is Vice versa in the erstwhile Euro crisis countries back better – which was a large part of the enormous thrust, the 2016/17 followed. In addition, also in Germany, meanwhile, the zeal has increased to support the domestic economy – whether on the minimum wage, or decreasing taxes.

And now? Since the beginning of 2018, the business will fall with the early indicators to the Export prospects of other industries. And behind that, more Worrying is possibly this time. If the economy has to weaken so started abruptly, it could have to do with the following multiple-shock:

US President Donald Trump with the trade wars Seriously. that the Italians will abstraften the old government, and the country now by populists ruled – what stock prices and economic were early indicators in Italy rapidly. the British were in your Brexit-Drama – what to leave alone because of the large uncertainty that was created, for a much more cautious business – and Germany’s Export to the island to 2016 by nearly seven percent break; and that the recent protests of the yellow West, in France, have caused a panic boost in the company – what accelerated the deterioration of the business climate.

The danger is, that since then, in the whole of Europe, the economic indicators are falling. To acute crises as well as in Turkey and Argentina. And the choice of the right-wing populists in Brazil. And the crash of the once-glorious Internet stocks. And the first serious doubts, like Trump, in spite of dreadful tax gifts of America’s sovereign debt once again should reduce what is in the past few weeks, the US stock markets stunning has to plunge.

Say: unlike in the Euro crisis, as economies, especially smaller economies such as the Greek went, threaten to 2019 several of the Top sales markets for German export to get your in a dangerous downturn. Then you could change the export mania to the bitter disadvantage.

Yet economic optimists argue that, in the meantime, in the domestic more will be issued and the Federal government in 2019, more money back to the citizens distribute. According to estimates of the leading research institutions, the structural Surpluses in the state budget is expected to decrease in fact around half a percent thanks to higher child benefits, tax allowances and others. Also, the auto companies are likely to restore more cars.

The nervousness takes to

The question is whether that is enough, as a small stimulus package to prevent the downward momentum is independent of how the in-phase tilt of the economy is typical – if, for example, the shocks from the outside, just too big, and companies are increasingly their plans down to revise, expenditure caps, and the crews begin to dismantle. As seems to be the one or the other of 2018 has already begun. Last October, orders for investment goods from the domestic well-seven percent lower than for the wedding in 2017 – as fast as Budgets are cut, if the nervousness is growing in such an export-heavy economy. Offense.

There is also a reference to the allegedly large consumer pleasure does not help: in 2018, the German real spent just one percent more than in 2017. That is all, only not a booming domestic economy – and everything else as a sign for a supposedly declining dependence on Exports. Otherwise, the Germans would not still for a quarter of a Billion euros more in the Rest of the world sell as a shop – which may be fine on a permanent, economically, because the other must be at fault for this, is enormous. Economics for the elementary school.

it is Still quite possible, what the majority of economic experts for 2019 promises: that by the rule continues, stating that it is for Germany will be fine and the economy is growing again. If the British escape, but still neat from the EU, the Italians grow again, the French are good, the Germans will spend lots of more money. Or so.

it comes as good, is only have never been in this recovery so uncertain. And the risk so great that it doesn’t go well. Then unemployment will be at the end of the year, for the first Time, again higher than at the beginning. A Turning Point In History.

Sam Yoon has many years of experiences in journalism. He has covered such areas as information technology, science, sports and politics. Yoon can be reached at 82-2-6956-6698.