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If in the UK, groundbreaking political decisions to be made, then, people look not only to political commentators, survey institutions and the politicians themselves. You will also find information about what the bookies say.
Here you can. on all Possible bets and thus also on the outcome of the highly anticipated Parliament’s vote on Tuesday Then the deputies of the lower house about the Brexit Deal, Theresa May a few weeks ago brought home to vote.
More on the topic of the vote in the lower house Who what is planning in the Brexit-Chaos
the odds do not Bode well for the British Prime Minister. Betting company Ladbrokes, for example, of bot on Tuesday morning at odds of 1/40 for the case, that the members votes of the lower house in the first round against Mays Brexit Deal. Say: to win a pound (and his bet back), you would have to bet a whopping 40 pounds. This corresponds to a probability of 97 percent that May be subject to.
The quota for a victory, Mays was 11/1. For every single pound you get his bet plus 11 pounds. The probability that this happens, an estimated of the odds, however, with just over 8 percent. The provider paddy power offers similar odds.
Ladbrokes also offers a bet as to how many members will vote for the Deal. May need at least 320 votes to win. Your conservative party has, however, only 317 members of the house of Commons. You have to rely on the votes of the ten members of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), has tolerated the Northern Ireland regional party, the Mays, the government so far. But is strictly against Mays Deal. Dozens of their own members have also objected to. Thus is almost certain that the Prime Minister is subject to. The only question is, how high their defeat will be. What do the bookmakers say?
Ladbrokes considers it as the most likely scenario is that 200 to 249 members for Mays Deal are going to vote – so significantly less than the 320, which May need. Here there is a use of 11 pounds, a gain of 8 pounds (plus the insert). The probability that at least 300 votes at the first start-up for the Deal, according to the betting companies is just 6 percent.
do Not bet only on the outcome of the Brexit vote
However, there is not only betting on the outcome of the vote on Tuesday. So, you can bet at Ladbrokes under the heading of “Brexit Specials” to the fact that it will be until the end of 2019, a further EU-Referendum. The rate is in 7/4, which corresponds to a probability of at least 36 percent. Paddy power sees a probability of 44%.
The main Figures of the Brexit in the Video: No agreement, no vegetables
it is Interesting, it raises the question: who will be the next Prime Minister: Ladbrokes is head of the Labour party Jeremy Corbyn, the best prospects with a probability of 18 percent, Ex-foreign Minister, Boris Johnson, and Minister of the interior, Sajid Javid both are at 12.5 percent. At the very bottom of the list, for whatever reason, the heavyweight Boxer Tyson Fury, with odds of 1000/1 (which corresponds to a probability of 0.1 percent). Also, William Hill and paddy power are currently seeing Jeremy Corbyn in front of Boris Johnson.
The odds of the bookmakers in the UK, seriously. Many of the journalists who deal with the politics of the country, not to mention in their reporting prior to the voting and in political battles frequently, as the bookmaker in the country to assess things. And for good reason: The bookmaker with their assessments. So researchers at the University of Cambridge in a recently published study concluded that the bookmakers were before the financial industry to the correct conclusion that the Leave-side would win the EU Referendum.
Better Predictions than experts and survey Institute
The researchers at the faculty of Economics have been kept in the night after the Referendum in June 2016, the odds of the betting company Betfair, and the pound-Dollar exchange rate in the eye. As the election concluded, the local 22 o’clock, the betting rate for a Brexit vote at 10/1, so there is a probability of 9 percent. At 3 o’clock in the morning of the betting provider has reversed course on a blow – and an estimated that the Chance that it would come to a Leave-vote, with 91 percent. The financial markets reacted by contrast, only about an hour later. The BBC predicts only about 4:40 p.m., that there would be a Leave-vote.
the conclusion of The researchers: The so-called “prediction markets”, that is to say, the betting industry, could may better predict the outcome of elections as experts and survey Institute. “It looks like the players had a better sense of the Leave could win, or that it could go in both directions,” said Tom Auld, the lead author of the study. On both sides there had been disbelief that people could have voted to leave the EU. But this unbelief was “much longer” in the banking district of London.
graphics to Brexit-Deal state of the negotiations, So it goes in the Brexit Poker
One reason for this is that the odds of the bookmaker could be more reliable than the results of surveys, the authors see in the fact that people invested money and therefore, financial interests followed. “What they tell pollsters, which can be only cheap talk.”
But, sometimes, instinct and complex computational models do not help, and the bookmakers lost. For example, the betting company Bookmaker has put recently, more than a quarter of a million dollars in the Sand – because U.S. President Donald Trump has to lie a lot.
The company offered to its customers, to bet on, how often Trump would say during his televised speech a few days ago with the untruth. Who bet that Trump would be more than 3.5 times lie was able to win pro 145 set US Dollar 100 US Dollar (and would receive back his stake). 92 percent of the betting customers, bet that Trump would not be more than 3.5-hold times to the truth. And you were right: The fact checking Team at the “Washington Post” was one of the Live Check-six lies. The betting operators lost 276.424 US Dollar.
the Bookmaker had not left, apparently, to the fact that Trump would quite often lie, when the speech on Primetime live, and then would be analyzed. “The President was restricted by a time limit,” said the Bookmaker-John Lester, the news service BuzzFeed News. It was “a bad day for honesty,” and for his company.