came The Chaos, the British government is struggling since the publication of the Brexit Treaty, is hardly surprising. The Deal, Theresa May has presented, in Outline, exactly, the, the, the hard Brexit pendant months ago had rejected. The resignations of several Ministers, were expected to plunge as the Attempts of right-wing conservative member of Parliament Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Prime Minister and to replace it by a head of government, more Brexit-enthusiasm on the day.

All of this is not painful for May, but not fatal – at least so far. May’s big Problem is the balance of forces in Parliament are, however: Even if they can save themselves from the current crisis, as it has done in the past two years so often, you manage to get your Deal through the lower house.

in Order to win a vote, the government 320 votes. The Tories only have 318 members, and two of them (the speaker of Parliament and his Deputy) do not take part in the voting. To close this gap, a went Oct last June a deal with the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), whose ten members of the government of their voices. This has so far worked relatively well, but the Brexit this majority will come to pass. Even more: According to a report in the Daily Telegraph, the party calls for the resignation of May: it Should not be replaced, would end the cooperation, the paper reported on Friday, citing the environment of the DUP Leader, Arlene Foster.

“I can’t look my constituents in the eye”

Estimated 40 EU-sceptical MPs to reject the draft contract and want to vote against it; in the past two days, countless of them have been left with no doubt that you want to bring the Deal under all circumstances.

But also on the side of the Pro-European Tories, there is resistance: Approximately twelve conservative Brexit-opponents of a doubt, that Mays outlet “in the national interest”, as the Prime Minister said at the press conference on Thursday evening. Dominic Grieve, one of the most influential EU-supporters in the Parliament, said: “I cannot look my constituents in the eye and say that this Deal is better than the one we have as a member of the EU; so I’m going to vote against it.”

Even if the DUP would vote closed with the government, do not come together enough votes. Of course, May also be applied to the DUP against: Anything that runs on different rules between Northern Ireland and great Britain, are opposed to the unionist categorically – and in the Treaty held an emergency solution in the case of the Irish-Northern Irish border, the so-called backstop, would do exactly this. Theresa May have broken your promise, said the DUP MP Nigel Dodds and his party will vote against it.

Similarly, the chances that a sufficiently large part of the Labour group or the Scottish nationalists for the draft Treaty, could heat are low. In view of the broad resistance, the Mays strategy has provoked, it would be a clumsy choice from a tactical point of view possible to vote for a widely unpopular Brexit Treaty – and, thus, a conservative (and equally unpopular) Prime Minister out of trouble to help.

For a second Referendum, the time

Theresa Mays is the strongest Argument for your Deal, that the Alternative is a chaotic departure without a successor contract, with all the economic consequences, not only in the idea of Brexit-extremists such as Rees-Mogg is missing. But the Pro-European MEPs deny that this is the only way: of The No Deal has a draft in the Parliament as little support as Mays. In the case of a failed vote, the members would try to bring other options on the Table: A simple majority of MPs could trigger a vote of confidence against the Prime Minister and a new election force; thus, it could also lead to a Brexit approach.

another possibility is A so-called people’s vote, so a re-referendum, for which a number of members from all major parties. The support for a second Referendum has grown in the past few months, but the implementation is tricky: To hold a Referendum, months of preparations are required. Also, for a possible renegotiation with the EU after a change of government is missing at the end of October 29. March 2019, the time. However, whether the UK can call the outlet to in article 50, which requires this period of time, unilaterally, a court must decide.

Kevin Chung studied literature in Seoul. He is interested in various areas. He can be reached at or 82-2-6956-6698.