Contents page 1 — The enemies are everywhere page 2 — the Scots refuse to be On a page to read
The Brexit has become for the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, to the Millimeter. In the past few weeks, has struggled in Brussels to every word, to every sentence in the policy statement and in the exit contract. Because the bigger the room for interpretation is, the sooner Theresa May skeptics can convince home to vote in the Parliament for the compromise.
But what opportunities May there be a majority? In the British house of Commons there are 639-voting members. For a majority in Parliament May 320 votes. The Conservatives only 316. Labour’s 257 MPs, the Scottish SNP 35, the liberal twelve, the Northern Irish DUP, ten, and other splinter parties 13. The fronts for or against Mays compromise, but not along party lines, but across all the groups. This makes it extremely difficult for the Prime Minister. Who wants what in the British house of Commons? An Overview
Out of everything and as quickly as possible. About the Position of the Brexit-hard-liners can be summarized under the British Tories. Is headed the so-called European Research Group (ERG) from the right-winger Jacob Rees-Mogg. The ERG is a party in the party and urges since the beginning of the referendum on a complete detachment from the EU: No customs Union, no internal market, no compromises – if in doubt, prefer No Deal. Anything else would make the UK supposed to be a vassal state of the hated EU. For you the between London and Brussels negotiated exit agreement is a betrayal of the people, and not a real Brexit.
With their attempt to overturn Theresa May, the failure of the ERG in the last week, however. For the request for a vote of no confidence, 48 Tory MP’s are required. But, ultimately, only 24 have so far, the necessary letter was also sent. The loosely organized ERG comprises between 50 and 65 members. Including: the former Brexit-Ministers David Davis and Ex-foreign Minister, Boris Johnson.
Even the hardliners know that the United Kingdom on the 29. March is not immediately and completely is to leave the EU. In the transition phase, until a trade agreement is negotiated, it should give according to their will, but only rudimentary make-shifts, in order to prevent a complete mess, for example, in air traffic or the drug supply. In the long term is to withdraw the UK from the EU completely, and only by a very loose free-trade agreement with the Union. As a model you will see the Ceta agreement between the EU and Canada.
The moderate Tory Brexiteers
About 130 conservative MPs are loyal to Theresa May. You are likely to vote for the EU negotiated compromise. About 80 parliamentarians, who are more likely attributable to May, but restrained criticism. You see, in particular, the so-called Backstop, so the makeshift solution for the Northern Irish border, is critical. May not have succeeded on Thursday first of all to convince these doubters. A number of deputies called on the Prime Minister to let the Backstop from the exit of the contract. But that’s not possible. Doing so increases the risk that a part of the loyal Tories against the compromise, could vote. Mays calculus: Also, these members will ultimately give in when you must choose between a chaotic EU-exit without a contract and the negotiated compromise.
the Pro-European Tory MPs
Also, under the Tories, there are some who are in favour of a great Britain remain in the EU. They reject the Mays compromise. You hope that it somehow comes to a second referendum. The group members consists of about 35 Parliament. The brother of Boris Johnson, the recently-resigned Transport Minister Jo Johnson, for example, one of these Remainern. In Parliament a Two-thirds majority to initiate a re-referendum, is extremely unlikely. May hopes, therefore, that you vote for Brexit Treaty, in order to prevent the Chaos of a No Deal.