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Shortly before the perhaps the most important Brexit-decision since the Referendum, the Prime Minister goes there where it hurts as little as possible: to Stoke-on-Trent. Almost 70 percent of the voters had voted in the English industrial city of 2016 for the withdrawal from the EU.
Before the factory workers advertises Theresa May now, once again, for your Deal with Brussels. Again, they sent an appeal to the deputies in London: It was their duty, the result of the referendum. Otherwise, it would be “a catastrophic and unforgivable loss of confidence in our democracy”.
In Stoke-on-Trent receives May hardly contradiction, she persists in her Brexit course. Unlike in the capital.
On Tuesday, the matches under the house via the exit agreement with the EU. The decision had actually already on 11. December should fall. But May postponed the date in the short term – you saw then no Chance of a majority.
Have improved their prospects since then? And what happens if the Prime Minister fails? Questions and answers about the vote in London.
What will decide the members of Parliament?
The deputies had secured the end of 2017, a kind of right of veto: If the terms of an EU exit that may vote under the house. The time has now come. The Parliament has to approve the exit agreement, the May has negotiated with Brussels. The Brexit to be regulated-costs for London, the rights of EU foreigners, but also the controversial question of the future EU external border, on the island of Ireland.
However, Before the final vote, the parliamentarians are to vote on Amendments from their ranks. The most important comes from the Labour politician Hilary Benn. He is not only a rejection of may’s agreement, but also includes an exit without any agreement.
Benn’s application is supported by politicians of various parties. A decision is expected in the evening against 20 clock. Benn has success, would be the actual vote on the EU Deal null and void.
May now be a better chance?
With the postponement of the vote to win the Prime Minister time to Brussels, to force further concessions. However, in the EU, there was no willingness to the contract plant to reopen.
Thus, it is also clear that May has little that is New in the Hand, the many critics of the retune in the home. 320 votes it needs for your Deal in the lower house. The Alliance of your Tories, with the Northern Irish DUP comes to 326 seats.
The Northern Irishman’s insistence, but on your rejection of the deal. Dozens of Mays’s party friends who also want to vote against the Prime Minister. How many will there be at the end, is hard to say.
A possible foretaste May got in December. The group’s internal vote of no confidence from the Conservatives trust voted 117 of 316 Tory MPs against the party boss.
Given the tight conditions May, would, however, cross-group many doubters to your side. This is because, with the full support of the Labour Opposition, the Prime Minister can expect – on the contrary.
Why is the Situation so?
The dispute revolves mostly around the Ireland question. In the negotiations in Brussels had insisted on a so-called Backstop. This is a stopgap: Should London and the EU in the further discussions until the end of 2020, a free trade agreement to some, would remain the UK in the EU customs Union and Northern Ireland in the internal market. In this way, a hard limit on the island of Ireland is to be avoided.
especially the Brexit-hardliners emphasize, however, that the United Kingdom could remain forever in the EU chained. Moreover, they fear the unity of the UK, there should be for Northern Ireland, a special scheme.
But it is much more: While the want a stock, the EU-exit without any compromises, others are struggling to remain in the European Union. Others hope for a new Deal that guarantees the closest possible relations with the EU. For any of these positions, a majority is not – just as little as for Mays agreements.
What would be the consequences of a setback for May?
the Prime Minister is surprising, is the big winner – at least for the Moment. May has made their rivals, to want in the next elections no longer compete.
However, it is more likely that you will fail. For this case, Labour has announced a motion of censure against the government. However, Tory will have to vote politicians with the left opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Much depends upon the Severity of the setback. If you have more than a hundred Conservative vote against Mays ‘ request, are likely to be Calls for a resignation of the Prime Minister are growing louder. More Mays are not able to do internal opponents. After the vote in December, the Tories may propose a toast for a year, no further vote of no-confidence against the party boss.
How goes it at the Brexit?
If the deputies waving the Deal through, leaving the UK, the EU as planned on may 29. March. What happens, however, if that is the ground under the house is completely open. Only one thing is for sure: May need to quickly come up with a Plan B. For three days she has time – a period, had imposed on the members.
A scenario: May could try in Brussels to negotiate. Generally speaking, the government has an interest in the matter for as long as possible to delay. The less time until the discharge remains, the more difficult it becomes for the opponent, their own plans to enforce. It is also conceivable that May, is pushing for an exit without a Deal. In view of the unpredictable economic consequences, for many a horror scenario.
is Likely that the parliamentarians will take after the vote the Initiative. You have the right to make Modifications to, when May your Plan B to return under the house. A part of deputies hopes to enable in this way a second Referendum – and a move further away from Brexit. An Alternative to new elections.
In both cases would be the Brexit-date on the 29. March probably not more durable. However, the UK may postpone the discharge for several months – provided that the EU countries agree.