Pay just before the decisive session of the governmental Commission, how much of the Coal phase-which will cost taxpayers. At around 52 billion Euro Kai Niebert, President of the nature protection ring, DNR, and a member of the coal Commission estimated that the necessary investments. Industry associations last only a slightly higher sum.

A cost-grave, as some lobbyists suggest now, is not the coal exit yet. It’s not tax money in the billions to be with him, Yes wasted, but it investments be made, in order to make the Coal phase-affected regions in Particular, and the industrial nation of Germany are in General fitter for the future.

How is the cost calculation? And how meaningful is it? Answers to the important questions.

How do the estimated 52 billion euros ?

The DNR the cost of the Coal phase-out is divided into the following five Items:

measure is the basis for the calculation of total structural aid for the coal regions, Around 1 billion euros over the next 15 to 20 years 18 billion in adaptation money for the Employed calculations of the industrial trade Union IG BCE 7 billion in compensation for higher Electricity prices for energy-intensive industries increase in price of 0.4 cents, demand of 500 TWh, Calculation 6 billion up to 2030, a 20-billion compensation for the premature Shutdown of power plants 0.6 billion per year by 2030 of Additional funding for conversion of the cogeneration 100 million per year 1 billion total CHF 52 billion.

source: DNR

About the height of the above-mentioned Figures argue – depending on your point of view and interests.

The proposed Structural support for the coal regions about at first appear to be low when compared with the original claims of the affected Federal States. The were once at 60 billion euros, which was regarded, however, as commonly covered. “With a billion per year, the Prime Minister, were ultimately satisfied,” says a member of the coal Commission.

of The estimated increase in the price of Electricity of 0.4 cents per kilowatt-hour, however, a scenario of the Federal Association of the German industry and is considered by many researchers as excessive.

first, there is in the German power plant fleet is still Overcapacity, a part of the kiln could, therefore, without consequences for the price of Electricity switch-off. Secondly, price drops levy with a higher Current at the same time, the so-called green power, because this compensates for the difference between the current price and the fixed price, the operators of green electricity plants for the electricity for 20 years guaranteed. Thirdly, experts expect that the individual effect of a Coal phase-out keeps on the price of Electricity. Because this is expected to rise until 2030 anyway. Even without a faster exit strategy from Coal, the share of gas-fired power plants in electricity generation would increase, and the global gas prices are likely to rise according to current forecasts, in the coming years.

“0.4 Cent additional increase in prices by the coal withdrawal are a fairly pessimistic scenario,” says Pao-Yu Oei, from the Technical University, the science for years, to the cost of the Coal phase-out.

Cover the 52 billion euros, really all cost?

in addition to the dispute as to whether investment in the Coal phase-out be in some Places will be higher or lower, there is still a debate about which expenses are attributable to the Coal phase – ever all.

in addition to the Items that the DNR is called, the expense of some experts, for example, the for the Expansion of renewable energies mentioned – the so-called green electricity levy at the end of the part of electricity consumers to be paid.

The share of renewable energies in the German electricity mix is expected to rise, according to the coal Commission, by 2030, to 65 per cent, to ensure the security of supply. “This target is, however, already in the coalition agreement of February 2018,” said Frank Peter of the think-tank Agona energy transition. “It appears to be so little sense to connect these costs with the Coal phase-out.”

At other Points, however, could accumulate in fact additional costs. The coal Commission proposes, if necessary to reduce the so-called network fees in order to limit the burden on the consumers by increasing electricity prices. If necessary, additional control means are to be used.

Also in the expenditure for restoration of the coal-producing areas, the question of whether the state should, if necessary, to step in. Because the corporations make up for these considerable costs and provisions. Now, where is the exit strategy from Coal is preferred, you have to spend more money than planned.

The carbon Commission stresses that this additional cost will be offset by the premiums that the corporations get for the premature Shutdown of its power plants. Whether or not this is realistic remains to be seen.

How meaningful the cost calculations are exit to Coal?

as a General rule, it is in the above-mentioned Figures only rough estimates.

So, firstly, the development of the electricity price are difficult to estimate. Of this, however, depends very much on how expensive the coal exit end. Even small fluctuations up or down can increase the expenditure of billions of euros or lower.

It is, secondly, it is hardly possible to distinguish completely clear – cut between those expenses incurred explicitly by the accelerated Coal phase-out- and between those which have arisen anyway due to the planned phasing out of coal-fired power until the mid-2040s, and the associated structural change. Also, the DNR does not do this in its cost estimate.

The final cost depends, thirdly, the extent to which the government implements the proposals of the coal Commission. It is quite likely that in the end not all the excited Structural support and compensation for the industry in its current Form be approved.

Sam Yoon has many years of experiences in journalism. He has covered such areas as information technology, science, sports and politics. Yoon can be reached at 82-2-6956-6698.