a Little time? At the end of text there is a summary.
It is not long since Donald Trump had something to celebrate. It shows that the import tariffs of the Chinese economy “do really hurt,” said the US President last August and gave slogans to his hard-pressed farmers: “We will win, but we must be strong,” he tweeted.
Almost a year and a half later, it is in the White house, clearly sheepish. The negotiations in the trade dispute with Beijing have resumed and both sides give, this time in a constructive way. “The talks with China are going very well,” said Trump last week’s peaceful.
Behind the conciliatory tones is likely to put a damaging event has taken place in the trade opponent, but at home in America: Since Apple has revised its sales forecasts due to the weak iPhone sales down, reigns in the stock markets fear of the Future. “Apple has shaken the markets with its China-warning. Who will be next?” the “Wall Street Journal” asked worried.
companies to report problems in the China business
in fact, have beaten in the past few months, a number of US companies Alarm, in terms of the China business.
The Barbie-manufacturer Mattel, warned in October that “we are seeing a slowdown in our China business”. Only an unexpectedly good sales of the fashion doll in the United States, the losses from possible temporary. The jewelry manufacturer Tiffany, the estate was the end of spending of Chinese tourists in the United States and Hong Kong, the turnover was disappointing in the third quarter of the expectations. The California wine industry reported for the first ten months of 2018, a decline in exports to China by 15 percent. The car group-Ford sold in China until November, 30 percent less than the year before. In November alone, the paragraphs broke by 50 percent. GM reported a decline in its China sales in the third quarter to 15 percent. The electric car manufacturer Tesla, building in Shanghai, a new plant, lowered the prices on some of its models, in order to keep the clientele at the bar. The logistics company FedEx cut its earnings expectations for 2019 down, because the world have weakened trade.
Yet these are individual messages, but they add up to a picture that the investors miss. The investment Bank Barclays has reduced its forecast for the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 values for 2019 from 17 to 16 and the argument that had worsened the Outlook for the world economy, mainly due to the slowdown in China. The IMF has set its growth forecast for the country from 6.4 to 6.2 percent for 2019 down, that would be the lowest Rate since the beginning of the 90s.
Damped consumer spending
For the plight Trump doesn’t bear the sole responsibility, even if the IMF refers to the “negative consequences of the recent customs actions”. Beijing house-made problems, so a huge mountain of debt of the company. But Trumps punitive tariffs are a burden on the economy, and the fear of an escalation of presses on the mood of not only the traders but also the consumers. In November, the rise in Chinese retail sales, is down as low as 15 years.
passers-by in Hong Kong (archive)
such A purchasing reluctance on the fastest-growing consumer market in the world, many US corporations is true, even if America’s economy is, on the whole, thanks to the huge domestic market is less vulnerable than other economies. More than eight percent of U.S. companies Goods and services exported go to China. And: From 2000 to 2018, these exports have increased by 530 percent.
While Trump’s war against China, export leads, has changed the factory of the world to buy house in the world – and the Goods in the shelves are a manufacturer from California, Michigan or Pennsylvania supply. And so his campaign gave the man in the White house a first Pyrrhic victory: In December, China’s exports to the USA fell by 3.5 per cent, but imports shrank at the same time, 35.8 percent. The result: The highest bilateral Surplus of China since the beginning of 2016.
Tech industry is particularly exposed to
The China-Blues will not only have an Apple. “There is more to come,” predicts Stephanie Link of the Investment company Nuveen in the channel CNBC. Yet most companies have not published quarterly results. However, analysts have begun to identify the Weak one in the convoy, the achieve like Apple has a significant portion of its revenues in Asia.
So China is the world’s largest market for semiconductors. Corporations such as Intel, Qualcomm and Texas Instruments, which has achieved almost half of its sales in the third quarter in China, are under intense scrutiny.
The Tech industry is particularly exposed. The investment Bank Barclays, according to the technology stocks of the S&P 500 Index have achieved 60 percent of its sales in international markets, twice as much as in the average of all values. The weakening of not only the exporters, but also those which produce locally.
recommendation for Starbucks down
a Starbucks store in Shanghai (archive)
promoted Many US companies have built their hopes on China’s rocket-like ascension. GM sold more cars in China than in North America. For Starbucks, that’s pourin ‘ down his coffee already at 3600 sites to China are likely to be the largest market the USA. A scenario that triggers a warning now: Goldman Sachs has downgraded the stock recommendation of the coffee chain.
The aircraft manufacturer Boeing predicts that China will order up to 2036, almost 8000 Jets worth more than a billion dollars. The energy company Westinghouse, has filed for 2017 bankruptcy, hopes that the nuclear-reactor business in China provides him with a new shiny future.
If these predictions still hold, it remains to be seen. As Apple is expected to be tried in one or the other group, private entrepreneurial failure of economic development. The slowdown in China give it the necessary “cover”, and tells her Dan Clifton of the Advisory Strategas Research.
Trump seems to be less relaxed
So Ford’s Problem in China had, long before the economy went into a tailspin. And show others that you can succeed in adverse circumstances. The sneaker manufacturer Nike has increased its sales in China in the quarter to the end of November by a whopping 26 percent. The weakening Region, thus the best.
In the White house, it has been decided to forward defence. “Not only will it be Apple,” said chief economist Kevin Hassett Frank: “Hell of a lot of U.S. companies selling in China will experience in the next year that their sales will be downgraded expectations down until we can fix a Deal with China.” After that, says the Trump consultant left, would normalize the sales.
The President himself, however, seems no longer quite so relaxed. In the autumn of this have talked only “about duties, duties, duties,” said stock expert Clifton CNBC. But then he began suddenly to rave about a “great Deal”.
Perhaps Trump has overcome a hunch that his strategy is backfiring.
Combined: With its customs policy of US President, Trump wanted to stop China’s rise in the United States. At the latest after the sales warning from Apple, which the group leads to problems in the Chinese market, shows that the of Trump’s proposed arms trade dispute to the boomerang for many US companies developed. Including only car manufacturers like Ford and Tesla, but also, for example, the coffee house chain Starbucks is not suffering. Even if some of the companies have already had problems, before China weakened, Trump has become small according to the and are now in talks.