Topbeamte the Turkish government’s practice in these days, the diplomatic art, the two warring sides in a conflict to always say exactly what they want to hear. The parties to the conflict in this case Russia and the USA, and between the two Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish President, wants to upgrade the air defense of the armed forces of his country in this case.

The Problem: The future heart of the Turkish air defense want both sides to deliver. The US just before Christmas, abandoned long-held opposition to the sale of its Patriot anti-missile system to Turkey as a surprise. The Russians, in turn, may be able to point to a 2017 signed contract for construction and delivery of their S-400 batteries. The production is also running.

This ensures nervousness in Washington and Moscow. The government in Ankara is trying to invalidate the Concerns as follows: the Public the government gives to the Protocol, you’ll have to buy both systems. In conversations with the Americans, in turn, Turkish officials have offered to give US experts the opportunity to the Russian weapons system study, as the news Agency Bloomberg reported, citing two in particular-called Insider.

Turkey and The United States alienating

This message has caused in Moscow for the unrest, finally, Russia has developed the S-400 System, in particular, cruise missiles and combat aircraft of the United States and of U.S. allies to shoot down. The all-clear came at the end of the week, a state news Agency: “Turkey has no intention to let the S-400 System of the United States to examine,” reported the Russian Tass, with reference to particular-called officials of the Turkish foreign Ministry.

The process is noteworthy because Turkey is since decades a member of Nato and, actually, long a close ally of the United States. The cracks in this Alliance, however, since 2016 is becoming clearer and clearer, since the failed coup attempt of the Turkish military. Parts of the Turkish leadership accused even the CIA with the coup leaders compacted. Shortly after the coup attempt, the approach began to Erdogan to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Meanwhile, both heads of state will agree about your approach in the Syrian war closely. By the end of 2016, the negotiations on the purchase of the Russian S-400 began.

The Turkish interest in the weapons system was probably an expression of a deep-seated Turkish Frustration: As a foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in November, was in Washington for talks, he admitted that his government made a lot of efforts over years in vain for the purchase of Western air defense batteries. Were delivered but never, among other things, due to U.S. security concerns, Turkey had also demanded access to the systems underlying technology. Instead, the country remained dependent on the Western allies: in 2013, about station, the Netherlands, Germany and the USA Patriot systems in Turkey to protect the country against attacks from Syria.

rewarding Poker for Erdogan?

After the conclusion of the Russo-Turkish missile deal, the United States have tried different variants, exert pressure on Turkey: you have threatened the country with sanctions if the Russian missiles should actually be used by the Turkish army. Also, the sale of 100 combat aircraft of the type F-35 and the involvement of Turkish suppliers in the production of the Jets – a 12-billion-Dollar-business – have been put on ice. Officially, on the grounds that an S-400 battery is in the possession of the, Turkey could collect data on the flight movements of the Jets – and go unnoticed in Russia. Has fruited this print a little. Already in October 2019, the first parts of the S-400 from Russia to Turkey.

With the U.S. offer, to sell now, but Patriot missiles, the situation has changed, however. The view from Timothy Ash, an Analyst at Blue Bay asset management, is the development now is a “big win for Erdogan”. The United States to provide its military with the long-awaited technology – and possibly a significant price reduction. The price for the Patriot range in the USA is estimated to be about 3.5 billion dollars. Although this is still more than the 2.5 billion dollars for the planned purchase of S-400, but also significantly less than the nearly five billion dollars, the Polish Patriot battery have to pay.

If the business with the United States, specifically, could do without the Turkey, in principle, on the missiles from Russia. A withdrawal from the concluded contract, however, could be costly for Erdogan, because Russia compensation would require payments. Experts hold that it is therefore possible that Ankara could in the coming months, even more frequently, to allow the S-400 battery from the Americans to make so that the Russians concluded to withdraw finally from the business, in order to protect their technology.

The conservative and close to the Kremlin, the Moscow news Agency Regnum, the suspicion is on anyway already, Russia could have helped the Turkey only, “to get a discount for the Patriots”.

Sam Yoon has many years of experiences in journalism. He has covered such areas as information technology, science, sports and politics. Yoon can be reached at 82-2-6956-6698.