The old year ends bitter for US President Donald Trump. The stock markets shudder, his political restraint is crumbling, the Opposition is gaining strength, the circle of loyalists is shrinking, the world community is at a distance, and Russia-special investigator Robert Mueller is getting closer.
But nothing symbolizes this lost year-better than the “Shutdown”, the partial US government to a standstill, the Trump, with his call for a physical wall on the border to Mexico has accelerated. Around 800,000 public servants to start in 2019 therefore, without a salary, while Trump verbunkert in the White house, and getting angrier Tweets settles.
The coming year is unlikely to be better, on the contrary. To Amtshalbzeit Trump stands politically with his back to the wall. He has rates of all fashion in his eyes: – braking Advisor gets rid of and is since then almost “unleashed,” as the Washington Post writes: even more uncompromising and more impulsive than ever, in a permanent clinch with the real perceived “enemies”. At the same time, his Talent, to obscure the reality of the truths, with lies, half -, and his daily reality show, but always transparent – so ineffective.
trump’s options are dwindling, but the dangers grow. “The last two years were nothing compared to what is in store for him in the next two years,” predicts Republican strategist Michael Steel in the “New York Times”.
The MIRROR shows the directions from which Donald Trump threatens to in the coming year, adversity.
trump is the biggest brand herd
Trumps government team is kicking through the back and out out litters supplied with blood so that, from the beginning of the year, a number of ministries and Offices are only managed at the Council table, including the defense, justice, home Affairs and the environment. Elsewhere, the Mittelbau – or qualification, the new Uno is missing Ambassador to Nauert, for example, Heather, a former Fox News presenter. 65 percent of the top positions were changed under the Trump, a presidential record. Trump does not interfere, but, apparently, in any case, he hastens with new appointments to vacant Posts. Because the Power is so focused on the White house, where he surrounds himself with family members and Familiar, the challenge for him, especially since he appreciates the Council of conservative TV commentators anyway, more than the staff. Speaking of which, trump’s now the third chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney has the prefix “acting”, is in office so only on demand. Because Trump is his own chief Advisor: “Only I can fix it,” he explained as early as 2016, and boasted of himself as almost infallible: “My gut feeling tells me sometimes more than the brain of someone else.”
Trump has ceased, the election campaign never, this year alone he settled on dozens of “campaign rallies” to celebrate. In the meantime, but all are nearly of his political efforts for a second term starting in 2020. Whether the US withdrawal from Syria and its growing isolationism, or his brutal immigration policy: All aims to keep its national-populist base, and without which he has no prospect of success. And this base is shaking. In the most recent Gallup polls trump’s popularity hovering around between 38 and 40 per cent – well below the outcome of 2016 (46 percent), with which he won only because the US electoral system conservative-prone States. Therefore, Trump 2019 is likely to be politically likely to be more extreme and more shocking, because the love of his most loyal voters.
How vital this basic for Trump, he is currently with the battle, a wall on the border to Mexico. In doing so, he made it even to the part of the government have come to a standstill – to the “Shutdown”. Although he had once promised that he would make the construction of the wall in Mexico, and although other methods of border security are more effective, it calls for five billion dollars from the US Treasury. The Democrats reject the. Most recently, he even threatened to block the border and trade flows in the amount of 558 billion dollars in the year. The dispute is likely at the earliest be settled, when the new Congress on 3. January inaugural and the Democrats have the majority in the house of representatives. However, this is already the third “Shutdown” under Trump would hardly be the last. In spite of the growing criticism of the consequences for the affected state employees Trump sees this ruthless method to be advantageous for him: The wall of promise was his most important fight, so, he must insist on her, all the realities of policy and logic, in Spite of otherwise, he’s risking his base and his re-election in 2020.
The new Democrat majority in the U.S. house for both sides of a double-edged sword. The Opposition can piesaken Trump now, with hearings, his Agenda, his blocking and his power fill brakes. However, Trump is likely to take advantage of that by increasing the Opposition to the arch-enemy and his base for resistance motivated. Among the issues with which the Democrats make his life more difficult Trumps finances, and Russia-contacts; members: the ethical misconduct of its government; the ill-treatment of migrants and the death of two children from Guatemala to the US Border; the relationship to Saudi Arabia; America’s military engagement abroad. Nancy Pelosi, the incoming speaker of the house of representatives, you must master a balancing act. Her left wing wants to start a procedure of impeachment (Impeachment), which is allegedly a concern, in the meantime, also, Trumps. The moderates, by contrast, could arrange with him about infrastructure reform, so as to collect points for 2020. The Problem is that Trump has not proved to be unreliable negotiating partner who keeps his word – what is applied now more and more Republicans against him. Increased resistance comes not only from Congress, but also of democratically governed States such as California. This largest US state blocked the Central government in 2018, with 44 complaints and other legal requests, for example, against Trumps health and immigration policy. A lawsuit in California against Trumps easing the Car-environmental regulations 16 other States and the capital Washington.
The existenziellste threat to Trump Russia-special investigator Robert Mueller. The could submit his final report in March. That Trump even previously voluntarily by Mueller interview, meanwhile, is unlikely. Mueller’s report will have the force of a tremendous blast – and a radical reaction at the Trump trigger. The former FBI chief has to pass on the report first, the as – yet-unnamed new Minister of justice- or the Trump specific, acting incumbent, Matthew Whitaker. Who then decides whether he released him or to the Congress leitert. If necessary, the Democrats want to claim the results in court. Such a cornered, could Trump exacerbate his previous Attempts to politicize the judiciary in its favor. This should not, however, always succeed: several independent US prosecutors to identify, in the meantime, against Trumps Ex-consultant, his family and his company.
The US economy – to their further growth Trump his fate has linked will cool down in 2019, according to many experts. Reason Trumps trade wars with China and Europe, higher interest rates, exploding debt burden of the state in the economy, global turmoil, a global slowdown, as well as the always ask the friendly competence of the US government. The corresponding vortex, if not the end of the upturn of the last few years, the U.S. stock exchanges, and also the Trump looks known as a Barometer of his popularity. His anger about falling prices, he will skip will probably back US Central Bank chief Jerome Powell, or Minister of Finance, Steven Mnuchin, what would unsettle the financial markets.
With the announced withdrawal of troops from Syria and Afghanistan Trump long-standing assumptions of American inside out foreign policy. The a welcome the move as overdue beginning of the end of the eternal wars of America. The other criticising the abrupt manner, with the Trump the is – especially since he has not coordinated the move with in-house security experts or the allies. Detailed Briefings Trump seems to have less and less interest. And apparently surrounded by hard-liners and Jasagern, revealed to Trump that his “America First”doctrine, in truth, “America Alone”: He snubbed allies, alliances, and global organizations like the UN and pandering to dictators. The entire post-war world order is at stake – so it is not destroyed already. “Trump in America to undermine national security more than any foreign adversary,” warned Ex-security adviser Susan Rice in the “New York Times”. Others fear that he is, stage of the problems at home distract, international crises and the U.S. could use military.