My business word of the year is uncertainty. 87 times the words “uncertain” or “uncertainty” in the current economic report of the OECD, the organization of market democracies. In the OECD report of may, there were still 65 Times. In the opinion of the Five Ways, there are at least 47 appropriate responses.
The global Index of economic policy uncertainty, measured by the US Economists Scott Baker, Nick Bloom and Steven Davis, has doubled since January and is now on the third highest level measured by the researchers ever.
uncertainty is not good. You disturb us in our plans. This is a Problem for the economy, for all companies, for each individual.
Rising uncertainty means that our picture of the future is always blurred.
This has an impact on economic development. Citizens and businesses are holding back. Purchases are made for investment plans slashed.
The Ifo business climate index, which measures the mood in the boardrooms of German companies, fell in December for a second Time. For this to happen. Finally, a historically long upswing in the years to come. But it is also a great General uncertainty is reflected in the fact that the scattering of positive and negative answers is not as big as in the past five years. The Company leaders simply don’t know what to make of the current situation. It’s fitting that the mood among German consumers dwindles, and how the CSFs identified.
uncertainty unsettled. She eats the heads, and prevents decisions that destabilized the economy and more, thus increasing potentially the uncertainties. Possible that we are at the beginning of an era of uncertainty.
Clearly, no one knows what the future will bring. Risks belong to the normal state of developed societies. But risks are not quantifiable. Their probability of occurrence can be used to calculate forecast error determine. Against risks, there is insurance. A whole industry lives.
uncertainty, however, is something Else. The term includes the possibility that the future may look quite different than the present. But what is the probability that there is a shift in one direction or the other, cannot be determined. So you can work bad.
The last decades have been a pretty ausrechenbare era, at least from the point of view of Western societies. It was a time of far-reaching stability. Even the financial crisis of 2008 and changed it little. The turbo-capitalism could produce boom and crash, but the national, European and international institutions are working – not perfectly, but at least they jumped up pretty effectively in the breach and prevented a system collapse.
Meanwhile, the policy itself has become a factor of uncertainty. On the Turbo-capitalism, Turbo-democratism.
majorities crumble, certainties wane
Populist governments, to advance America’s upper-Glacially Donald Trump, always Surprises. Trade war with China, a withdrawal of troops from Syria, understanding with North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong-Un – reliability is boring. The political Drama needs to go on and on. Every day another act.
to bring New movements from below use social media to turn the public mood and people on the street. So it was that the UK exit voted with the slim majority in low voter turnout for the EU – and now appears to be no majority in Parliament for an orderly Brexit concluded get. A Tragedy.
In France to block the “yellow West” road transport and policy. In Brazil, the right-winger Jair Bolsonaro via Whatsapp-campaign of the catchment to the presidency. The list could easily extend.
In the search for the causes, one quickly encounters the social consequences of economic crises and the disappointing development of the income and labour markets. Also, immigration and diversity, provide obvious uncertainty. But a crucial role to the structural change of the political Public, which leads to prevailing opinions turn so quickly, that majorities crumble and certainties disappear.
In many EU countries, minority governments are now in office. Shaky constructs, based on this, changes on the majority. According to difficult your Act is predictable. Not even in Sweden, the mother land of the peaceful compromise, and they can communicate with the parties for months to find a viable coalition.
Germany is affected by this development rather indirectly. The analyses of the Dortmund research project DoCMA suggest that the complex situation in the foreign country and the uncertainty about the further course of the Central banks to get out off the crisis mode, make for uncertainty. The German interior policy, however, was long extremely stable, dominated by Angela Merkel’s style of government – boring, but (mostly) predictable.
However, this Era is coming to an end. In Germany, too, it could be the relative calm will soon be over.
measuring The world
The Modern can be understood as a large-scale project against the uncertainty. State institutions, decently organized, and regulated markets should be enclosing the Incalculable, and the risks to mitigate, which are easier for the Individual to handle.
towards the end of the 19th century. Century began to statisticians in order to measure companies in a systematic way. In the past decades, forecasters have made great progress in the immediate future to predict. Welfare States were expanded to individual hedge risks. Even the weather is not so surprising about us as before, because the forecasts become significantly more accurate.
But now, cracks. The trust in state institutions and companies has decreased. Science is not always as reliable. The journalism there is not better: Many citizens say that they could no longer distinguish between real news and Fake News. Companies threaten to lose their common Knowledge base. Liberal democracies still have to prove that they remain under the new conditions, continue to function.
If the uncertainty hinder economic development and as a result, the trust in institutions and companies is disappearing, then the control ability of entire Nations further at risk. And the stability of the international order.
uncertainty conveyed uncertainty. 2019 promises to be, thus, seen to be an exciting year.
The main economic dates for the upcoming week Monday,
Beijing – Still staring rests the Kingdom – New Figures for the moods in China’s purchasing managers. The ascenders economy gets increasingly trading feel war with the United States.
Rome – High above, on the balcony – Christmas in the Vatican: Pope Francis granted the blessing “Urbi et Orbi”.
Wednesday No events Thursday-No events Friday
Wiesbaden – prize question:… – The Federal Statistical office released its estimate for the rate of inflation in December.