The world economic forum in Davos starts with a little optimistic forecast: to 2019 will increase the global economic output is now only around 3.5 per cent, informed the International monetary Fund (IMF) at the beginning of the meeting.
in fact, the prospects for the global economy are not so bad as it has been since a long time. And there are three reasons: Trade disputes, Brexit and a slower growth in China.
The new IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath has called vigorously to resolve the uncertainty around the Brexit. “A No-Deal-Brexit is one of the biggest risks to our forecasts.”
consumption stable, industrial low
of particular concern to the development in China is also : Like, the statistics office in Beijing announced, growing the economy of the people’s Republic so slowly as for almost three decades. She reached out in the past year, only a relatively weak growth of 6.6% in comparison to 2017.
the weakness of the economy in China, the export suffers from dependent German economy . Although the Bundesbank is shown quite optimistic: The German economy had achieved a turnaround, especially thanks to a strong consumption against the end of the year the trend. In November a strong increase in sales in the retail trade talks. Of the labour market to present himself “in great shape”, many Employees have available the bottom line is more money, wrote the economists, and the Bundesbank in its monthly report for January.
the industrial production was, however, recorded a significant decline. Also normalise the production in the automotive industry after the introduction of the new emission and fuel – consumption standards WLTP “only very hesitantly”. The problems in the auto sector slowed down the growth in Germany, also stressed the IMF chief economist Gopinath.
More on the topic of the world economic forum in Davos dialogue in the dark ages
No recession, but risks
The Board of Directors head of the Swiss Bank UBS, Axel Weber, said: “ Europe is likely to be for the first two quarters of the sore point for the world economy.” At the same time he warned not to look too pessimistic in the future.
The German Federal Statistical office had said in a first estimate, a “slight Plus” of the German economic performance in the last three months of last year. For the total year 2018, the Wiesbaden-based authority, as calculated provisionally, an increase of 1.5 per cent – significantly less than in previous years: 2016 and 2017 were each 2.2 percent economic growth.
World it looks like for the near future is even darker. The new IMF forecast is of 0.2 points from last October – which is already taken back. For 2020, the IMF predicts a lower global growth at only 3.6 percent.
“before there Is a global recession ? No. But the risk of a stronger decline in the world economic growth has certainly increased,” said IMF Chief Christine Lagarde. You asked, top-of-the politicians would have to appeal to the dangers and be prepared, if the growth is slowing down seriously.
An escalation of the Trade disputes is an essential risk for the development of the economy, noted the IMF – a reminder, which is expected to be directed primarily at US President Donald Trump. However, the district remains the economic forum in Davos.
survey among Top-managers
Skeptical, German Top-Manager. The annual survey by the consulting firm PwC, showed, look the executives are significantly more pessimistic in the future than in the previous year. For example, 29 percent expect to in the coming year, with a decline in world economic growth – a year ago, it was only two percent.
With a stronger growth of 38 percent, 23 percentage points less than a year ago. Internationally, the trend is similar, if not quite so extreme. Reasons for the negative sentiment, the trade conflicts, as well as the shortage of skilled workers, according to PwC.
How serious the situation is, meanwhile, in China, also shows a Manifestation of state and party chief Xi Jinping . He called on all members of the leadership, “to avoid large risks and to mitigate, to a sustained and healthy economic development and social stability,” he was quoted by China’s state Agency Xinhua.
export-oriented German companies, the slowdown in the Chinese economy are already feeling: The largest vehicle market in the world had to accept pay in 2018 for the first Time in two decades, a decline in sales.