The British Prime Minister Theresa May is sticking to the negotiated Brexit design and also wants to fight against all odds. She did that in front of the British Parliament and the press. Everything goes according to Plan, a special EU summit on the design of the 25. November, by wave and the beginning of December the British Parliament. 29. March 2019 may leak in the United Kingdom then sorted from the EU, an arbitrarily extendable transition phase allows for a buffer for further negotiations. But what if may’s Plan not work out? What would exit the EU-and their political future mean?
Summary: Option 1: vote of no confidence Option 2: deadlock in the Parliament Option 3: new elections Option 4: Second Referendum Option 1: vote of no
trust Only a few hours after the publication of the draft Treaty had a dozen of Brexit-a Hardliner of the European Research Group (ERG) of their votes for a party’s internal vote of no confidence tabled. Until the end of the week you want to have the 48 required to vote in favour, said MP Graham Brady, who coordinates the request for a vote of censure. Thus, the vote could take place as early as next week.
In this case, all 317 of the conservative MEPs would be asked, either for or against their party leadership. Every member gets a vote, a simple majority decides (159 votes). May should survive the vote, which observers expect currently that would be you for the next twelve months safe in the office. In this time, no new motion of censure is likely to take place.
you Should lose or voluntarily withdraw, would start a vote to its successor, the so-called leadership contest. The choice of the respective parties in the UK are different. While in the case of Labour, all the members choose to be supported by at least 15 percent of their party colleagues, it is up to the Conservatives to a maximum of two candidates. There are more Candidates, primaries under the conservatives. In each round, the Person leaves with the fewest votes, until only two remain. The approximately 100,000 party members then vote by postal ballot about the new party Chairman. The process can take, in the leadership contests of 2001 and 2005, passed two months.
As a potential successor to Mays again and again retired Ex-Ministers called: Boris Johnson, David Davis, Dominic Raab and Esther McVey, but also the Name of the development Secretary, Penny Mordaunt. The hardliners Jacob Rees-Mogg ruled out a candidacy. Rumors that Dominic Raab May want to rush, this. In a Sky Interview, Raab said he would not encourage members to rush May. “I don’t want to be part of this kind of discussion or debate,” said Raab.
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Option 2: deadlock in the Parliament
more Likely than a voluntary or forced resignation a ‘ no ‘ in Parliament. In December, the members of the House of Commons will vote on the Brexit design. To approve the document and to begin the orderly to exit the EU, it needs a simple majority, less the non-voting members of the 320 votes.
The Problem: The Conservatives have seats since the last election, only about 318 Parliament, and the harshest critics come from within its own ranks. Even if May could move all the members of your party to a ‘ Yes ‘ to the draft, it wouldn’t be enough. The Prime Minister is therefore reliant on votes from other parties and which are not weighed straight. You could, however, pull enough deviants on your page. In the case of Labour, for example, some members of the Mays Deal better than no Deal, or even a strong EU are skeptical.
it Should not be enough in the end, despite the deviation of learning for a majority in favour of the draft contract, several scenarios are conceivable. May could take responsibility for the Failure and resign – or their Party colleagues might be, if you have not already done so before the election, a vote of no confidence in aspiring to you. Against the Background of a failed vote, a miss would have no confidence after the parliamentary vote, and probably a better chance than now, because May has presented the Deal in the first place.
The EU would change the outlet to the internal political reorganization in any case, nothing – the 29. March 2019. So the EU wants it. It came to No Deal, and the EU and the UK would probably try, by individual agreement as soon as possible, to the greatest damage and confessions. Conceivable (although very unlikely) would be that both sides go on a collision course and to apply it to a completely unfair break.
Because of the EU, Britain’s exit from unprecedented emergency situation, one must not rely, however, on existing rules and Statements. Under the circumstances, all parties Involved could not pull the previously set conditions. If the Parliament rejects the Brexit design, could great Britain, for example, try to ask the EU for more time for a new Deal, and to change article 50 of the EU Treaty, which provides for a two-year period for the outlet. The Option of Labour is of the essence currently. The EU has signaled no willingness to do so, but the circumstances would be after a Parliament vote. The British could also try to agree first, in the short term, a very different model, such as the Norwegian: Then the United Kingdom would remain in the single market, but not in the customs Union. This model would be acceptable to Labour and the Conservatives might accept as a transitional solution. The EU and the States of the internal market, want to avoid legal certainty and short-term, temporary memberships.
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Option 3: new elections
If the Parliament could the Brexit-the draft rejects and subsequent negotiations as tough, if not impossible, to design, Theresa May elections to seek. Then a new government could determine a new Brexit course. For this you would have to convene Parliament for a vote. Is egga two-thirds majority for new elections, set a date for elections. Alternatively, the members of Parliament can seek re-elections, by requesting a vote of censure against the government with a simple majority to settle.
elections would be however very time consuming and hardly before the separation on 29. March to enforce. Also politically it would be risky: Conservative further voting fear losses such as the spontaneous re-elections of 2017, in addition, you have no Alternative to Mays, the current price offer. Labour, however, has problems of its own leadership: Many Labour members of Parliament to reject in the event of an election victory for Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. More attractive than a disabled Parliament and a chaotic EU-exit for new elections, but would all.
Depending on the election’s outcome, everything would be then possible. If the British decide clearly for one of the parties and agrees on a common action – which is also still months, if not years, may elapse, then a new Deal could be negotiated or perhaps even a return to the EU will be discussed. If the distribution of seats is, however, complicated as it is now with the Conservatives in a minority government, then it would be, at least mathematically, again in the same place as now.
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Option 4: Second Referendum
Against a second Referendum language for a long time that the population had made their request in the first Referendum in 2016 is clear: The majority of voters wanted to leave the EU. A re-vote would have asked the first question; and some critics warned of a loss of confidence in the democracy and civil unrest. The Conservatives oppose a second Referendum, therefore, strictly, and also parts of Labour see it that way. Head of the Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn, for example, a second Referendum. In addition, it is unclear what the two voting options would be. At the Moment, there are in fact three claims: Theresa may’s Deal, no Deal or in the EU. The election Commission does not want to complicate referendums and consists of two response options.
Currently, there are two paths to the Referendum, both ahead of theoretically putting an extension of the deadline for the EU exit. A decision to exit on 29. March 2019 is currently not computationally feasible, and practically feasible – even when many of the British men and women wish to have a second Referendum. But without being a member of the EU, you can not decide to remain a member.
extended the deadline from article 50 of the EU Treaty, would be new elections in a way to the Referendum. A Labour government with a new top, which would be open to a second referendum, this could prevail. Alternatively, the Parliament could call on, even without new elections, the government to have a new Referendum. The current balance of forces, however, argue against this Option.
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