He does not voluntarily leave. He would like to remain at the top of the party, after him, the other one has but displaced from the Munich state Chancellery. A couple of months at least, until the regular end of his term? Maybe a little bit longer?

that Was the Plan from Horst Seehofer? And if already. Perdu.

The party has aligned itself on the New. Seehofer must make this Saturday, after ten years and three months, the CSU presidency. Ironically, Markus Söder. That party friend so that Horst Seehofer prevent the past ten years and three months as a successor is sought.

“The exchange is a part of life for me,” says Seehofer. But it is more of a farewell than an exchange. Because it starts nothing New.

Alone, the unloved Federal Ministry of the interior remains to him, to let him Söder. Who is addicted to politics, can’t choose the specific drugs. The Ministry of the interior in Austragshäusl. He will try to stay as long as Angela Merkel is Chancellor. So he does not end up at all the men “are in the cemetery behind the Chancellery”. He told the times.

Against little Horst Seehofer has put up a harder fight than against the always impending political. He was the Comeback Kid of German politics. Up and down it went. At the end of Seehofer came back again and again:

after the defeat in the Bundestag elections in 1998 and the loss of his Ministerial post after just surviving a heart muscle inflammation four years later; after his resignation as Deputy parliamentary leader in the conflict with Angela Merkel in the year 2004.

Every Time Seehofer, the health recovered and politically. But he waited in vain for the Comeback. Since the defeat in the General election in 2017, then the loss of the absolute majority in the regional elections last autumn, was only. And, of course, the all-overlapping epic conflict with the Chancellor of the refugee policy.

“face it, age Horst, you need to go now!” – so went, sung by a Söder-Double, the Refrain of a Spottlieds the strong beer tapping at the Munich Nockherberg in February 2018. A month later, the real Söder took over the office of Prime Minister, now Seehofer also loses the party chairmanship. Nearly a year after the performance of the singspiel became the Nockherberg for Seehofer bitter reality.

He arrived at the beginning of the year 2019 back to the level where its critical ascent began ten years ago: on the outside position. Solo Seehofer.

The climb

Seehofer’s calls on the CSU-tip begins with the defeat of the Congress in September 2007. The loner and the darling of the base is subject to his counter-candidate, Erwin Huber, the team player and the darling of the officials.

Seehofer has been originally in the better position, but just in time for the political fall of Edmund Stoiber’s to the beginning of the year Seehofer’s reveals the secret: the pregnant mistress in Berlin.

A year later, Seehofer is still party leader. The CSU debacle in the regional elections of 2008, the loss of the absolute majority, which means his ascent. As a rescuer in time of Need, as the one who will restore the 50-percent-plus-X-myth, Seehofer brought to Munich. You make it not only the party boss, but also to the Prime Minister.


Seehofer, the heart of Jesus-a socialist and self-centered, suddenly, as the last hope of a party that fought so long against him. Both sides play a part in this Experiment. And Seehofer, of saw, was in Angela Merkel a Co-responsible of the failure, because they sabotaged the Central campaign promise of the CSU – the re-introduction of the old Commuter tax -that makes immediately the direction for the coming years: “My job is in the future, in Munich, but my combat power will also extend to Berlin.”

The Commuter is a small detail from today’s point of view, but Seehofer reminded in the confrontation with Angela Merkel during the refugee crisis, and then again and again to this humiliation. Something like that should not repeat, never ever.

the summit

Time, time, but always in the front, and a populist flair for moods is characterized by: Horst Seehofer is playing with themes and people.

So he fights only for the extension of the running times of German nuclear power plants after the Fukushima disaster in March 2011, it can’t go to him with the exit quickly enough. He heats up the battle among his potential successors, Markus Söder, Ilse Aigner, Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg. Söder he puts in between “character flaws” and “Schmutzeleien”; Guttenberg he calls a “Firefly”, but nourishes after the crash is always the Illusion that the US-exile will return one day.

voice fishing #82 – Söder inherited Seehofer: the CSU is now in even more Trouble?

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When people Seehofer popular in the party respected. The CSU, defers to him, because he delivers. At the state election of 2013, he brings back the absolute majority in the Bundestag election in the same year, Seehofer scratch the 50-percent mark. He accounted for this rise of the party on his account: “That it has been possible to secure the existence of this unique party,” he replies recently on the issue of the “world on Sunday” after his greatest success.

However, he concedes at the peak of his also Makes a decisive error: He announces his withdrawal from the Post of Prime Minister in the 2018 final. Seehofer’s making himself into a lame duck. And no one recognizes this as well as Markus Söder.

The 2014 European elections, messed up Seehofer with an EU-critical Sound, the Gemurre in the party, in the parliamentary group, they accuse him of acting uncoordinated. And then with the refugee crisis.

The descent

late in The evening of the 4. September 2015 sent Angela Merkel a text message to Horst Seehofer. The refugee crisis reached in this late summer in Germany, thousands of Budapest on the way, the Federal government is a landmark decision.

But the CSU chief is not responding to the message of the Chancellor, his phone was switched off, he claims, later on, further attempts of Contact are failing. So Merkel decides without Seehofer, to leave the borders open. And put this only in the position to make as a coalition partner, in retrospect, against the Federal government and to make the decision with that of a pure Merkel’s decision.

This is the origin of the dispute, which leads ultimately, in the summer of 2018, almost to the break-up of the sister parties. Seehofer benefits in the beginning, because he has found a new, great theme, but in the end, he fails in his strategy: the voters who do not understand why the Christian respond to social in Berlin, the government, the power in the case of this topic, supposedly all wrong. And Angela Merkel, who behaves in this question, similar stubborn as Seehofer.

From the point of view Seehofer’s Merkel is wearing a new responsibility of the CSU loses at the state election in 2018 for the second Time within ten years, the absolute majority.

Seehofer has doggedly, but the CSU makes him now stand in the rain – as his party friends had the Anti-Merkel, course of refugee policy is not supported. He is the bogeyman. After the miserable result at the Bundestag election in 2017, he needs to go as Prime Minister, in the Wake of the defeat at Bayern-election, he must stop now as Chairman.

Markus Söder has expired insidiously the rank. Because he contacted so cleverly, as it did Seehofer earlier.

“He is now a tragic figure. Today I almost pity him,” says last September, the long-standing Federal Minister of labour Norbert Blüm on Seehofer, he had once made his Secretary of state. The Mischievous was no longer there, says Blum: “I can no longer recognize him.”

The feints racket Seehofer, of course, following the Finale would fit: He is freed of the responsibility for the CSU, again to Form, leaves this Tunnel in which he had in the past months locked up – and will come to the end of his career but still is a successful Minister of the interior.

He has nothing else more.

Sam Yoon has many years of experiences in journalism. He has covered such areas as information technology, science, sports and politics. Yoon can be reached at 82-2-6956-6698.