as diverse As the German financial economy, with its triad of savings banks, public banks and private institutions, an experience they do have in common: Almost none of their executives can still remember it, as it is to look with Confidence to the coming year.

had arrived Since the year 2007 with the collapse of the düsseldorf-based IKB, the global financial crisis in Germany, the industry is on a downward spiral – and there are many indications that it is coming in 2019 worse.

The average return on equity after taxes of slightly more than 1600 banks in Germany most recently amounted to just over two percent, an underground value. Worse still, The least Institute, earn so much, how much it costs to invest own capital or foreign capital.

Simply put: most of The banks are not long term viable. And, although Germany’s economy has been booming for years and many Bank managers and loan losses only from the stories of older colleagues.

but Now the economy a gloomy Outlook, write-downs and insolvencies are likely to escalate soon. This exacerbated the crisis in the money houses. Especially in wall, the economic situation decreases the probability that interest rates rise in the Eurozone in the foreseeable future significantly – and thus also the revenue of the banks.

loss of autonomy

the Threat Add to that the digitisation of the traditional business models of the financial institutions in question – while at the same time, the strong regulation of the banking sector leaves little business room.

the savings banks and cooperative banks react to it for years with the same recipe:

in Order to reduce their costs, the merging of individual institutions, and to centralize services, to increase your income, increase the fees.

This will go in 2019. Also, because these two Bank groups know that they will lose market share, since the Germans are especially loyal customers.

For the Deutsche Bank and the Commerzbank, however, it will go in the new year, simply to survive independently. For weeks the rumors of what will happen with you thick and fast:

you Need to merge in their Distress (it may, even if the economic Benefit would be low)? You will be swallowed by a foreign competitor? (Unlikely – in particular, the derivatives book of the German Bank, a poison pill) for anyone interested. Or are there other, publicly, as yet, not discussed variants?

Dramatic turnover and loss of importance

unlike his predecessor Wolfgang Schäuble, the German Finance Minister, Olaf Scholz, is working actively on two of the largest concerns of the Frankfurt financial centre. This is due to his Secretary of state, Jörg Kukies, formerly Germany, head of the US investment Bank Goldman Sachs, came a man with Design.

but Above all, it is because, that Berlin is, with a share of 15 percent, the major shareholder of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank represents an incalculable risk for the Federal government, should you get into an existence-threatening Situation.

the group with Christian Sewing has to be for the first time in years, a top Executive that does not give the impression of a visionary weirdo or spleeniger figures nudges. But even he is struggling so far in vain against the dramatic turnover and loss of importance.

Like a blow to the money-laundering investigation, which led to the end of November to a spectacular RAID in the twin towers met him. Uncertain whether Sewing can lead you to the Deutsche Bank back on track.

Much of it is open, there is very little clear. So much Better than 2018, it will not be in the new year for Germany’s consumptive banks.

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Sam Yoon has many years of experiences in journalism. He has covered such areas as information technology, science, sports and politics. Yoon can be reached at 82-2-6956-6698.