MIRROR: in 2018, was an exceptionally bad year for the stock exchange, the German stock index Dax lost about 18 percent. Why?
Gebhardt: The world economy is growing slower than expected, the cycle comes to an end, the prospects are uncertain. The investors will hold back in a Situation like that, is normal. Since about two months we are seeing a buyers ‘ strike, also in the bond market, where increasingly risky bonds fail.
MIRROR: , the 2019 Will be different?
To the Person, The light image Studio Henning Gebhardt is one of the most respected investment strategists of Germany. Since January of 2017, he is a member of the extended management Board of the Hamburg-based private Bank Berenberg and the head of asset management. Prior to that, he was more than 20 years in the Deutsche Bank group, most recently he headed the global equity business of Deutsche Bank subsidiary DWS.
Gebhardt: Yes, if the economy returns to the beginning of the year is good news. But as I said, the situation is unclear. Brexit, trade war, Italy crisis: There is an unusual amount of uncertainty, the company is waiting to see how much you can invest and. After all, in Germany there are no signs of a recession.
MIRROR: What makes you hope?
Gebhardt: , especially China. The local share market has stabilized already, the policy on several occasions, the lending easing to drive growth. Even a stimulus program I think is conceivable. The main thing is that, the trade war with the United States will not escalate further.
MIRROR: in 2018, came many emerging markets into a tailspin. Is the danger?
Gebhardt: I think so. The emerging countries are in much better shape than a few years ago. If the US Central Bank will not increase at the same pace as 2018, the interest rates will also fall in the Dollar. This, in turn, helps the Emerging Markets, whose businesses are often in debt in dollars, and it is easier to settle the debt, if the course is weak.
MIRROR: In what, then, should invest investors?
Gebhardt: , especially in companies with healthy balance sheets and secure dividends. The industries are not so critical. And I believe that the shares of auto suppliers or the chemical industry are attractive again. The latter have, according to the price losses of the past year, a lot of Catch-up potential. And the auto suppliers could benefit from the fact that E-mobility in 2019 is expected to be a mega-topic. I think it is a good time to buy shares. Anyone who is uncertain, you should invest in Gold.