In December will decide who will take over the CDU Federal Chairman. According to the latest ARD-deutschlandtrend, 46 percent of CDU supporters want the General Secretary Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Merkel’s successor begins. 31 percent of CDU supporters are in favour of Friedrich Merz takes over the presidency. Only twelve per cent are in favour, according to the current survey, for the Minister of health, Jens Spahn.

CDU Chairwoman Angela Merkel had announced after the poor result for the CDU in the state election in Hesse in October, to stand again for the party chairmanship. The election of the new Chairman of the CDU is considered a trendsetter for the future course of the CDU. Kramp-Karrenbauer is considered to be Merkel-Familiar, and despite some conservative positions, as a representative of the center. Both Merz, as well as Spahn be attributed to the conservative wing. On 7. December to decide, 1001 delegates in Hamburg, who leads the Christian Democrats in the future.

in Spite of the waiver on the CDU chair Angela Merkel wants to govern as Chancellor until the end of the legislative period in 2021. According to the present Germany trend-56 percent of respondents support the. The are seven percentage points more than in January.

the Federal interior Minister Horst Seehofer (CSU) had announced last week that his office as CSU party Chairman to resign. Minister of the interior, he wanted to remain. 73 percent of the respondents in the survey that he gives to the Minister. Also, 74 percent of Union supporters are in favour of the.

Green is currently the second strongest force

If, at the Sunday parliamentary election would be, would the Union according to the survey, 26 percent. The Greens are therefore 23 per cent, the second strongest strength – you gain six percentage points. The SPD is unchanged at 14 per cent, on a par with the AfD. The FDP loses: it currently comes in at eight, Left at nine percent.

For the survey respondents in the opinion research Institute Infratest dimap from Monday to Wednesday of this week, nationwide 1.506 entitled to vote.

About the uncertainty of polls

Representative surveys, errors are always subject to. It can be assumed that the actual value with high probability is in a range of one to three percentage points above or below the end-the indicated measurement values. The corridor of this statistical error, we show in our graphics to election polls.

The results are based on sample surveys. These usually cover only specific parts of the population (for example, people with a landline telephone connection or Internet users). Some potential participants are reluctant and want to not be interviewed. Questions are sometimes understood wrong, and not always sincerely answered. For example, in response to previous surveys. However, to calculate a General opinion about all groups of the population, must handlers the demo missing values, and suspected inaccuracies to be compensated and the Figures re-weighted. This (usually not transparent) formulas differ in the institutions and, therefore, lead to different conclusions.

polls are always snapshots. More than a rough tendency for an opinion it should not be inferred. Even if the statements and calculations at the time of publication of the survey, are close to reality, is still open as to whether the then-surveyed voters, for example, later in fact, your voice or change your mind.

for More background about our handling of election surveys can be found in our transparency blog glass house .

Kevin Chung studied literature in Seoul. He is interested in various areas. He can be reached at or 82-2-6956-6698.