A day after Juan Guiadó as a transitional President left exhortations, joined Venezuela’s defense Minister Vladimir Padrino in front of the cameras. A Person lifting her Hand and for the President to appoint, said Padrino, in allusion to Gauidó, threatening the rule of law and peace in the country. He spoke of a coup, directed against democracy and the Constitution, and “Nicolás Maduro is the legitimate President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela”.

in A Statement, two for the political future of Venezuela’s key points. Firstly, the question of legitimacy. Here Guiadó can claim: As President of the national Assembly, he is the only remaining democratically legitimate Institution in the country. His constitutional claim to the presidency, however, is not as clear as some of his supporters like to claim. In addition, the United States and several Latin American States have recognized Guaidó as interim President – even though China, Russia and other countries hold on to Maduro.

The fusion of politics and the military

The second crucial aspect of the Statement is the Person of the lecture and a question. On whose side the military? Padrinos loyalty expression, surrounded by other senior military officials, shows that The peaks of the armed forces to keep – at least to all external signs – more to Maduro.

Venezuelan soldiers

Recently showed Maduro and Padrino demonstrative together with soldiers during a military exercise.

That the authoritarian state is supported chief apparently more of the military peaks, is to be understood against the Background of the development of the Venezuelan armed forces in the past 20 years. In 1999, Maduro’s predecessor and political Idol, Hugo Chávez called the Bolivarian Revolution in the country and began its “socialism of the 21st century. Shape of the century”. For this political project of the Ex tension, a soldier, Chávez also the armed forces.

He let members of the armed forces ideologically, schools, promoted loyalists and distant enemies. Cabinet positions were also allocated to the military as positions in the state Oil company PDSVA. Under Maduro, this development continued. Even today, some of the most important representatives of the regime – such as Diosdado Cabello, the Chairman of the Maduro loyal constituent Assembly, or to defense Minister Padrino – military.

One consequence of this merger of politics and the military: a number of officers are involved in crime, such as drug trafficking and smuggling. Experts, therefore, be a guarantee of immunity or a penalty reduction is essential, should the generals be to convinced.

Hugo Chávez (2005)

A criminal Guaidó had let weeks ago. The national Assembly is working on an Amnesty law that the military protects, if you participate in the restoration of the democratic order. Can convince the so far, the opposition close-to-Blog “Caracas Chronicles” criticized the design as too not detailed.

Although Venezuela’s military attaché in Washington, to Guaidó Colonel José Luis Silva, recently. Whether the Amnesty will be enough offer to persuade the generals to the Rebellion, must show. So far, in any case, Should Guaidó when I try to drag the military leadership on his side have made progress, they are barely visible.

The lower ranks desire

The situation in the lower ranks, however, is a different. Simple soldiers do not come in the enjoyment of the privileges of the Chavista Elite. You and your families suffer like the Rest of the population under supply crisis and Hyperinflation.

Here, the discontent is growing. Two days before Guiadó was as a transitional President bring home, rebel members of the national guard in an army barracks in Caracas. The rebellion was quickly struck down.

the Breakaway abroad: More than three million Venezuelans have fled in the last years before the economic crisis of the country – many of them soldiers. In the case of a return to Venezuela to hard penalties. In the neighbouring countries, many of them contact with each other as well as to former comrades in Venezuela.

The troops in the barracks were divided, says a renegade Venezuelan Lieutenant Colonel of the MIRROR. Maduro had clearly lost. For the soldiers in the country, which are against him, whether it be because of the spying by the security services, but difficult to coordinate with each other. The soldier fled, according to two years ago from Venezuela. Today, he lives in Colombia.

Juan Guaidó

Other Apostates abroad called least in video messages to the armed uprising. Two of them went recently with a specific call to the Public. The former soldier Carlos Guillen Martinez and Josue Hidalgo Azuaje called on the United States, Brazil, Colombia, Peru and “all brotherly countries” to help them with weapons.

they wanted no foreign Intervention, said two of the US broadcaster CNN. If there should be an Intervention, then you would have to be of Venezuelan soldiers carried. There were many groups who were willing, against Maduro to rebel. This now needs to unite.

The support by the United States and right-wing governments in Brazil and Colombia, is for Maduro’s opponent, however, quite problematic. The Regime is trying Guaidó as a puppet of Washington. Discussions on arming Venezuelan apostate by the US would reinforce this Version. There are in the country – given the history of U.S. interventions in Latin America, not unauthorized reservations against an even bigger influence from the outside. Maduro will use the for.

Sam Yoon has many years of experiences in journalism. He has covered such areas as information technology, science, sports and politics. Yoon can be reached at 82-2-6956-6698.