How surreal it is to negotiate with Donald Trump, you know, even the Republicans. Shortly before Christmas, they had agreed to in the budget dispute with the Democrats, a government’s part to avert a standstill in the very last Minute. The US President agreed, and left his claim to a wall on the Mexican border, are falling.

But then took Trump to pressure from conservative commentators, a 180-degree turnaround. The Shutdown came – and is now in his third week without a solution is getting closer. Now, Trump is threatening even to a national emergency call out, to get funds for the wall.

Trumps Wankelmut depends on now but still much worse negotiations: A U.S. Delegation is on Monday, for the first time in a long time in Beijing, to find a way, trump’s trade war with China to settle. Both sides do strong, but weakened in the new round, especially since no one knows if Trump sparks again between them.

“The China talks are going very well,” predicted on Sunday, even though it has been months of only oral contacts, least a phone call Trumps with Chinese President Xi Jinping shortly before the turn of the year. “Good things will happen.”

Trump had instigated the confrontation by he imposed punitive duties on Chinese imports to the value of $ 250 billion. China retaliated with tariffs on $ 110 billion of U.S. Goods.

a provisional ceasefire

At a Dinner on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires Trump and Xi closed in December, a provisional truce. You can find up to 2. March, however, is not a solution, to increase U.S. customs duties once more – what could have been for all the dramatic consequences.

Xi and Trump at the G20 summit in Argentina

The negotiations in Beijing, which will take at least until Tuesday, the first Meeting of the experts since then. The moves this week, especially the wobbly U.S. stock markets: “China is the biggest thing,” said stock strategist Julian Emanuel from the financial firm BTIG, in the economy news channel CNBC.

Trump sends first, only the third guard to Beijing. The US trade representative Robert Lighthizer and Minister of Finance Steven Mnuchin stay home and let Lighthizer, Vice Jeffrey Gerrish, and Secretary of state David Malpass represented.

analysts expect, first of all, because no real, concrete progress. Even the trade experts Trumps can hide faults only to a limited extent. Even if this have to do with the economic realities are such that often little to. “We take many billions of dollars of punitive tariffs by China and others,” boasted Trump, for example, on Friday, as the duties would flow directly into the U.S. Treasury and not to the companies involved and the consumers loads.

companies both sides groan

Both in the United States as in China, the consequences of the trade war are always significant. In the United States, the trade war has the prices according to the Federal Reserve Bank of 0.3 percentage points rise. Apple justified its recent revenue warning, not least with the “trade tensions” and the declining sales of iPhones, Macs and iPads in China. The US stock markets reacted with wild swings: they closed last week, also thanks to a good labour market figures in the Plus, but is further below the levels of a year ago.

Because, contrary to trump’s claims the rest of the U.S. economy begins to suffer – especially companies that rely on steel and aluminium imports. The has got of course long since to China around and gives Beijing leverage against Trump. Especially since China’s economy is groaning under the trade of war: for the First time in two years, its industry is shrinking faster than expected.

But while Trump short-sighted, apply Beijing’s negotiators as extremely well prepared, with a view to the future. “China is willing to endure far greater economic pain than Trump,” writes Chuck Jones, the founder of the Reseatchfirma Sand Hill Insights, in the Magazine “Forbes”. China, too, of the many internal political challenges trump was aware of the strengthening of the Democrats to the Russia-special investigator Robert Mueller.

More: China knows that Trump is “obsessed with his Image” – and that his Posted “do not really speak for him” because he “could change his mind at the last Moment (and several times)”. Because the next Tweet.

Sam Yoon has many years of experiences in journalism. He has covered such areas as information technology, science, sports and politics. Yoon can be reached at 82-2-6956-6698.