To the Person AFP Elie Cohen , 68, was the long-time Economics teacher at the Elite school of Administration, ENA, where President Emmanuel Macron studied. Due to his many studies, he has been one of the most influential Economists of France. His most recent work with Gilbert Cette, in which he explained the possible funding of Macrons new measures, has just the government and the media.
MIRROR ONLINE : the “yellow West” law: Is the President of Emmanuel Macron, a President of the Rich?
Cohen : no. Macron wanted to go to the bottom of things, to care for one. France had a serious competitiveness problem, the capital has been taxed in all of its forms is very high. France was not in a process of rapid de-industrialisation, the production site was attractive. So, Macron wanted to enforce at the beginning of his tenure a number of reforms, of which he knew they would be unpopular -and then later also social measures.
MIRROR ONLINE : you can just say.
Cohen : There is a proof: The 100 Euro of additional income for minimum Wage that he promised the yellow vests this week, is already in his program, they were only intended for a later date.
MIRROR ONLINE : Did you see the Protest in that force not come, and the deprivation of many of the French underestimated?
Cohen : We knew that there was a real Problem that all high-developed Western countries: the purchasing power of The lower middle class has stagnated for the past ten years. Parallel to this, the monthly fixed expenditure of these people rose in the same period. So they had less money to live on.
MIRROR ONLINE : Why the Protest then came to Many as a surprise?
Cohen : The Protest was not so strong. The yellow West is not brought to the two last week more than 150,000 people. This is not much in France. What had been seen really any before, was the massive support of public opinion. This gave the yellow West only your strength and energy. Added to this was a violent Protest, which seemed to threaten the social peace. Yellow West, the Public and the rioters together developed an unpredictable dynamic that forced the government to every weekend to a reaction.
MIRROR ONLINE : With his first reforms after taking office, Macron not only relieves the capital and the large assets, but also Miethilfen deleted and the higher taxes of the retired demands. This is the receipt?
Cohen : I Agree, his Timing was, in many ways, good. He was right to adapt, a French anomaly, such as the property tax. She has helped us for 40 years. But at the same time, the low-wage earner, something that was the wrong Signal. Ultimately, it was a mistake to want of first the one and then the other one, so all the measures to offer recovery in advance. This mistake will cost him much, and he needs to fix it now.
MIRROR ONLINE : The French minimum wage is among the highest in the world. The people who relate to him are still poor?
Cohen : The minimum wage is in us net for 1200 euros, which belongs in Europe to the top. About 10 percent of our employees are related to him. But then there are 40 percent of the workforce, only one-fifth earn up to a third more. In France there is a particularly high number of people living close to the minimum wage. The range of salaries is not very large. This is our special feature. This salary structure plus the Stagnation of the minimum wage plus the error Macrons have the machine explode.
MIRROR ONLINE : Gets, France now problems with the European stability criteria?
Cohen : Perhaps, but that would not have been necessary. The government elected in 2019 a special approach: you budgeted in a year, the tax relief for companies for two years. Otherwise, the French deficit would be 1.8 percent of economic output, but we are at 2.8 percent, and have a Problem. Because the Revolution of the middle class, which takes place just costs us money. This could mean a deficit of 3.4 to 3.5 percent for 2019, and would be above the Maastricht criteria.
MIRROR ONLINE : How can this even be prevented?
Cohen : Along with my colleague, Gilbert Cette, I suggest, the Reform of tax relief for businesses, the cost 2019 20 billion euros, around half a year delay. So that we can save in the next year, 10 billion euros – as much as Macrons cost of the new measures and remain within the Maastricht criteria.
MIRROR ONLINE : your colleague, the French Harvard Economist Philippe Aghion, wants to take a loved one no regard for Maastricht.
Cohen : Philippe says, if the house is burning, save it first, its residents, and the tens of billions. No matter what is broken. Gilbert and I are of a different opinion: France has not met for nine years, the Maastricht criteria and only last year did. 2019 may, therefore, be no relapse.
MIRROR ONLINE : Depends on your caution with the situation in Italy? Not allowed in Paris to do what the populists in Rome, try?
Cohen : The European context is certainly complicated. There is the Italian risk, and Germany is not on the French proposals. We don’t want to give up the hope for a Reform of the Eurozone. Therefore, we should not squander now with too high a deficit, the Chance of this.
MIRROR ONLINE : Has promoted Germany’s negative attitude towards Macrons ideas for a social Europe, the crisis in France?
Cohen : I wouldn’t say so. But Germany’s Adherence to the European stability criteria has led in the last year of Macrons errors: He would otherwise have had to not Miethilfen and pensions. And that was a key point that has brought the people in a Rage.