It is not often that Donald Trump verbally coming clean. However, in the case of Saudi Arabia, the us President has defused in record time, his tone of voice. A few days ago Trump was the sheikhs clearly know that you could survive without the protective Hand of the Americans, no two weeks in the turbulent Region.
With the undiplomat of Salve he wanted to push the Saudis to encourage more Oil to push the price of energy. In mid-November, the Congress elections are coming up and Trump has promised voters cheaper gas prices.
But anyone who thinks that Trump, in the case of the missing saudi Arabian journalist Jamal Khashoggi exerts similar pressure on the sheikhs, whose whereabouts clarify, you are wrong. Although Turkey believed that Khashoggi had been murdered in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, sounds Trump mild.
should anyone be so quick to judge, perhaps the villains were-like Killer for the Disappearance of the regime-critical journalists responsible.
The verbal disarmament to Saudi Arabia sheds light on how the balance of power actually.
dependence of the United States from the Saudis
Trump has led his country and the world with its policy into a fatal dependence on the sheiks. The US President has dropped out of the nuclear Treaty with Iran. At the beginning of November, Tehran will get the sanctions with the full brunt of. In the Region Saudi Arabia is the last ally of America, that matters even more in Oil extraction.
But Trump also inherits historically dependencies. So get used to America because the Saudis to recycle a portion of their Petrodollars in the world’s largest Economy. The Riad has it. in the Hand, to the West severe economic harm and push the world economy into a recession Also, Germany cannot weigh completely safe, even if the Saudis as a trading partner do not play a role for the local economy.
The strongest weapon of the sheikhs is their Oil. Although America has become, thanks to the shale revolution, the largest producing country. However, the daily is funded by 11.2 million barrels is not enough long to cover its own needs, let alone to supply the world with the most important lubricant of the Economy.
Saudi Arabia sold daily, seven million barrels of oil in the world and is the largest Exporter of oil. Now the situation is tense on the energy exchanges, because the offer remains for some time behind the demand. Alone because of the sanctions against Iran soon, a further 1.7 million barrels per day are likely to be missing. The need to compensate for the other funding countries and the Saudis are one of the few Oil Nations that still have free capacities.
Oil could again would be as expensive as in 2008,
Riad Should, however, put on the a political weapon Oil and the promotion of chokes, it is to turbulence in the oil markets. The experts at the analysis house of Capital Economics expect this is the case, with Brent prices from $ 150 per barrel. So that Oil would rise to the same level as in the year 2008.
at the Time, the world was sliding into recession. In the past 50 years, at least a doubling of the price of Oil preceded each of the global economic downturn,“ says Anatole Kaletsky from the independent analysis of the house GaveKal. Since the fall of 2016, doubling Oil prices more than.
Should throttle the Saudis production is expected to increase the prices further. As Riad 1973/1974 began last the its oil weapon, it is not the desired effect. The Brent prices have quadrupled by then from three to twelve dollars per barrel. The global oil crisis caused a global economic downturn. But the Saudis could harm the West more subtle.
In the past few decades, Americans have become well established that the sheikhs invest part of the Oil revenues. The Saudis have invested their Petrodollars in US Treasury bonds and belong to the twelve largest creditors of the USA.
U.S. government bonds over 170 billion dollars
Only on Tuesday, new Figures were released that show that the Saudi has reached cal’s holdings of American bonds, the record value of almost 170 billion dollars. The Saudis should repel the state papers, this could drive up the interest rates on the bond markets rose sharply. Finally, Trump has made this year because of tax cuts, new debt of $ 800 billion, in the coming year, the trillion mark expected to be cracked.
The money he needs to Treasuries over the issue of new US, like the debt hot in the Jargon, to sink in. Since he can’t have any additional sellers of government bonds. But it is not only Washington has set up with Saudi dollars, but also the Silicon Valley.
The sheikhs have become in the past few years, the most important venture capitalists in American Start-ups. Since the middle of 2016, the new strong man, the crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has invested about 13 billion dollars. A portion of the money he has put directly in to the ride service provider Uber, or the E-car manufacturer Tesla.
another part is in the future Fund, a venture capital company Softbank. On this, the Saudis are involved in the provider for Coworking jobs WeWork. Just for the ambitious young Tech companies, the Saudis, the image of risk. After all, companies like Uber or Tesla want to give people a Vision.
A shareholder whose country has a reputation for rooms, inconvenient journalists out of the way, counteracted may be the positive radiance. WeWork offers of jobs in the United States for political reasons only vegetarian diet. “We do the Right thing,” is the new Slogan of the Uber-boss Dara Khosrowshahi. In the case of his company, the Saudis even sit on the Supervisory Board.
These dependencies are also likely to be the Trump known, would loved to its most important Partner in the Region of skåne. But the US Congress could be the plans of the President to cross. The members of Parliament could impose a Two-thirds majority for sanctions against the sheikhs. RBC-analyst Helima Croft sees stormy times in the world. “The crisis is far from over.”