The researchers from the German Institute for economic research (DIW) look sceptical on the German economy. The times of the boom were over, they shared. You corrected the forecasts for the growth of the economy. The researchers now expect to launch in 2018, a growth of 1.5 percent and 1.6 percent for the coming year. For 2018, the DIW had been estimated previously, a 0.3 points higher on the Plus and 2019 by 0.1 points to stronger growth.
The economic upswing in Germany is also in the view of the Kiel Institute for the world economy gradually to the end. The researchers now expect 1.5% growth instead of 1.9 percent, in the years 2019 and 2020, at 1.8 percent, instead of the previous 2.0 and 1.9 percent. “The recovery is still in the next year, in the course of the year 2019 is expected to be implemented gradually in the downturn,” said Stefan Kooths, head of forecasting center at the Kiel Institute.
Also had to set the economic forecast. In the third quarter, the economy’s contraction for the first time in three and a half years. “The danger of a recession is low,” said the head of DIW Claus Michelsen.
Because of the economic setback in the summer, have their cause mainly in the automotive industry. Due to problems with the certification according to the new emission and consumption standards of the EU, the manufacturer managed to sell as many cars as I thought, and slowed down their production, which also had an impact on the investment. “The loss of production is likely to be in the Winter, at least in part made up”, predicted by the DIW.
The German economy has a long growth phase. The DIW stressed that the upward trend will continue, albeit at a weaker level. The construction industry floriere, the labour market situation is stable. Do more and more in the wallets of the workers is noticeable. “The wages rise even after deducting the Inflation, which is expected to be in the coming years at around two per cent, it is expected that more than one percent per year. The private consumption benefits”, said DIW expert Simon Junker.
there is uncertainty, however, due to the unclear exit of Britain from the EU, as well as because of trade conflicts, for instance between the USA and China. This has led to a slowdown in the global economy.