Horst Seehofer showed behavior to be pleased. The Figures for initial applications for asylum have fallen in 2018 compared to the previous year by 16 per cent to around 185,000, 2016 had asked at the time of the refugee crisis, about 722.000 people a request for asylum. So actually, in the meaning of the Federal Minister of the interior, the report presented on Wednesday to the current migration.

Although the attention for the refugees has decreased in some Parts of the society, the subject is on the agenda. “The Migration will be with us for years to come,” said Seehofer. Also from the Union faction in the Bundestag, muffled sounds were heard. The Migration normalise, still, however, the “irregular immigration is significantly above the level of ten years ago,” said the CDU/CSU parliamentary group Vice-Thorsten.

The new Ostpartei

The assessment is correct. Because not only the number of refugees has changed the political landscape in Germany has changed. The AfD has managed to get with the fear of migrants, with generalizations, Exaggerations and anti-Islamic discourse in the Bundestag, all länder parliaments.

2019 is a particular challenge for the opponents of the AfD, because this year will be elected in three Eastern German States – Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony – Anhalt. There, the party comes in the surveys on values of 20 percent or more. She seems to be, the Left – of the once classic Ostpartei – the outdo. Their influence now extends over AfD-voters.

After a now in the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung” has published a survey of the Allensbach Institute, 37 per cent. of East Germans, although without the participation of the AfD to governments, but to their way into the parliaments, including any significant political influence Nothing about the actual election results in the fall says, but a lot of the difficulties with which the other parties have.

The protection of the Constitution is distrust

It will probably change the recent action of the Federal office for the protection of the Constitution a little. Parts of the party – the “Young Alternative”, and the right to observe the outside of Björn Höcke in the “wing” Recently “suspected cases” and thus, theoretically, with intelligence agents. Just to the East of Germany, the representative of the “wings” are particularly strong, this Wednesday they hold a Meeting in Saxony. Höcke in Thuringia and Andreas Kalbitz in Brandenburg, are also top candidates in their respective countries, both of them can build up to today on the support of the AfD party chief Alexander Gauland and Jörg Meuthen.

Plump, but quite effective in parts of the AfD play with the memories of the “We are the people”-mood from the turn of the autumn of 1989 in order to bring the activity of the constitutional protection in the vicinity of the GDR secret service Stasi. Coupled with a widespread scepticism of the German system of Democracy operates, the AfD on this issue in the Mainstream of East German society.

this mood in the East is Favored also by the rejection of the constitutional protection in large Parts of the left party, as formulated, for example, recently, the Left party leader Katja Kipping: “to know that the AfD democracy is an enemy, I need no constitutional protection.” The office, she said, belong to abolished, that has Been the attitude of their party.

but the fact is, the Left is acting contradictory: In Thuringia, where Bodo Ramelow heads as the only Prime Minister of the left party a red-red-green coalition, was declared the AfD in the past year, under the SPD Minister of the interior of the country, the protection of the Constitution to the “test case”. The story is still bizarre, if you know that Ramelow in the fall of 2013, had complained as a member of Parliament, successfully before the Federal constitutional court against its long-standing observation by the constitutional protection. A verdict from Karlsruhe that attaches the barrier to the observation of deputies since then, higher – and today also the AfD parliamentarians benefit.

In this situation, it is unlikely that the measure of the constitutional protection of significant effects on the AfD supporters. The example of the left party – which was for many years observed by the Federal office and some country offices – that shows how little could be of voters and followers to be put off.

Union, the SPD, Greens and FDP, therefore, remains only to find a fierce political battle with the right-wing populists. This is also a pragmatic, reality-oriented refugee policy, which can point to declining Numbers. The current development, as the migration report documented, is a building block. More but also not.

Sam Yoon has many years of experiences in journalism. He has covered such areas as information technology, science, sports and politics. Yoon can be reached at 82-2-6956-6698.