What is the SPD? This question does not have, in the recent past, just a lot of voters, but also the social Democrats. The party is working on its renewal, but further slippage seems to be to stop in 2019. A frequent point of criticism: The party within the Grand coalition is not visible, set it to rarely own accents and from the border there is not enough of the Union.
A representative survey of Online opinion research Institute Civey for SPIEGEL ONLINE confirmed this impression. Accordingly, the respondents do not see competence more clearly in the SPD.
the FDP (digitalization) and the Green (environmental and climate policy) Are still clear core areas, where they depend on the other parties, stands out in the SPD in any field. It is remarkable that in the case of social policy. Here the social Democrats are still at rank one (21.9 percent), but only by a narrow margin in front of the Union (18,7) within the error range. ( note on methodology: unlike in the case of the Sunday question are also taken into account, and the details of non-voters. )
Even worse, it looks at two core themes of the SPD. As in the labour and social policy (Federal Minister Hubertus Heil) leads the party with Franziska Giffey also in terms of family policy of the Ministry. The population of the Union (23.1 percent) believed that more than the social Democrats (21).
competences in the European policy: the AfD and the SPD on a par
Particularly serious is the values on European policy. Only 13.2 percent of respondents see the greatest competence for the social Democrats. The SPD is behind the AfD (13,5), the toying exit with a German EU. Most are also suspicious of the Union. 34.1 percent of the respondents see the greatest competence in European policy for the CDU and the CSU.
In all categories, the values also arise from the fact that voters of a particular party to see the queried skills, particularly in their own ranks. And due to the large electorate of the CDU and the CSU that helps, especially the values of the Union. Nevertheless, it is remarkable that the social Democrats are not able to settle in its three core areas anyway. In Europe, politics is about self-Green voters think the Union is qualified as the SPD.
in Total, the CDU and the CSU will be attributed in all areas, apparently, a certain basic competence, in turn, also due to the fact that Union voters in the population are the most represented. Clear the front of the Union from the point of view of the respondents, in addition to the European policy in the economic policy, foreign policy, education policy, financial policy, and to create skills, jobs.
Union Sunday question
the results of the Sunday question for the Union is encouraging. Currently, it comes to 29.7 per cent and rising, compared to the beginning of December, by three percentage points. The second strongest force, the Green (18.2 per cent) remain for the time being.
The strong upward trend of the Green seems to be initially stopped. Already since the middle of December their value remains largely constant, before the party had lost within two weeks, more than two percentage points. The SPD (15.6 percent), continue to fight with the AfD (14,4) to rank three. While the Figures of the social Democrats have changed this year, it was hardly the AfD is a slight downward trend. This corresponds to the usual fluctuations of the past few months.
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How does the Civey methodology? The opinion research Institute Civey works with a multi-stage fully automated process. All representative real-time surveys will not be asked to play in a Germany-wide network of more than 20,000 web sites (“river sampling”), so only users of SPIEGEL ONLINE. Everyone can online to participate in the interviews and will be taken into account with his answers in the representative results, provided he / she has registered. From these users Civey draw a quota sample, which ensures that it corresponds to, for example, in the characteristics of age, gender and population of the population density. In a third step, the results of which are attitudes weighted finally, after other socio-demographic factors and Value of those Voting, in order to correct distortions and to prevent tampering. For more information, you can find also in the Civey FAQ. Why is registration necessary? The registry helps to weight the responses, and enables a result for the polls, the electoral population in Germany representative. Each participant is asked for his gender, year of birth, and place of residence. Then everyone can give his opinion in surveys on various topics. How will the results be representative? The response of each participant is weighted so that the results of a survey, for the population is representative. In the Sunday issue and that the government monitor this population consists of the voting age population in Germany. The weighting is done fully automatically on the Basis of the personal information during the registration process, as well as the history of previous responses by a user. For more Details on the methodology are available in the Civey-white paper. Can be reached online at all enough participants? Opinion polls are usually conducted by telephone or online. For the validity of the results is crucial, how many people can be reached and how many participate in a survey, if you are approached. Internet connections and landline connections, are widely used in Germany is currently about the same distance – at around 90 per cent of households, mobile phones in 95 per cent. The willingness to Participate in all of the methods in the single-digit percentage range, especially low estimates for the phone surveys.
There is, therefore, in both methods, a group of people, which can not be achieved, because it has either no connection to the network or does not participate in the survey would like to participate. Therefore, for a meaningful result, must be addressed, a lot of people. Civey-surveys are currently involved in addition to MIRROR ONLINE in more than 20,000 other websites, including the different media. This ensures that all groups of the population may be reached. How can I tell the quality of a result? Pending the outcome of a survey is to be representative, must be sufficient to attend to many different people. If this is already managed, makes Civey transparent by given to each survey result is a statistical probability of errors. Also, the number of participants and the survey time will be published for each survey. What does it mean when the colored areas are overlapping in the graphics? Our graphics show the statistical error is shown as a colored interval. This interval shows, with which uncertainty in a survey’s value is connected. For example, you can’t tell in the Sunday question of exactly how much percent would get a party at an election, however, but an interval specify, in the result with high probability. The intervals of two survey overlap values, then, strictly speaking, no statements can be made about the difference. In the case of the Sunday question that is: Are the survey values of the two parties so close together that their error intervals overlap, one cannot conclude, which would cut of the two is currently the better choice. What happens to my data? The personal data of the user are encrypted and stored on German servers, and remain confidential. Employees of Civey work for the reports only with User IDs and can not bring the users with their vote. The personal information of the user and serve to weight the responses, and to ensure that the polls are not being manipulated. To prevent this, uses Civey statistical as well as technical methods. In addition, Civey works together with external partners, the target groups for advertisers to create. Only if the users have accepted the privacy statement, both of Civey, as well as from external partners, may use your responses from the Partner to the modeling of these target groups. A Partner but receives no information about your political and religious settings, as well as those with which you can be identified. Civey-users will not be recorded on the Basis of your answers with the advertising. The disclosure to a Partner, you can as a logged-in user at any time. More information about privacy at Civey, you can find here.
Who is behind Civey?
At this point, readers in the App and on the mobile/stationary Website will have the opportunity to a representative Civey-survey. Civey is an Online opinion research Institute based in Berlin. The Start-up works with different partners, including the “daily mirror next to the MIRROR ONLINE”, “Cicero”, “Friday”, and Change.org. Civey is through the funding programme ProFit of the Investitionsbank Berlin and the European regional development Fund, funded .