At the state election in Bavaria, there were large shifts between the parties: The CSU lost its absolute majority, the Greens are now by far the second strongest power in the Landtag, the SPD collapsed, and the AfD managed to jump into the diet after the party was started five years ago.
According to surveys by Infratest Dimap, the CSU lost a total of 260.000 voters. She won more than 270,000 votes from previous non-voters, 100,000 of former SPD voters and 10,000 votes from voters who had last voted for the other parties (including the Left).
the Christian have Lost social primarily at three parties – and in almost the same order of magnitude: 160,000 voters who had voted at the last state election, 2013 to the CSU, voted on Sunday for the Free voters and the AfD, to 170,000 for the Green. Relatively low, the loss of 40,000 voters to the FDP is in this context.
The Greens gained a total of 530,000 voters. The strongest growth was recorded with 210,000 votes from former SPD voters. Place of 180,000 previous CSU-voters are. 120,000 new voters recruited the Green from the Reservoir of previous non-voters, about 20,000 of the other parties (including the Left) and 10,000 of the FDP. In sum, neither the profit and loss of the previous supporters of the Free voters, the Greens had to make only relatively manageable 10,000 in the AfD.
The historically poor performance of the SPD in Bavaria (the previous low of 18.6 percent from September 2008, it was almost halved) by the voters trek to explain. The social Democrats were nowhere to win, but lost to all the other parties and to the non-voters – with 480,000 votes. The biggest loss of the 210,000 voters who migrated to the Green. 100,000 of the previous SPD voters voted this year for the CSU, of 70,000 for the Free voters, 50,000 for the other parties (including the Left) and 30,000 for the AfD. 10,000 each went to the FDP, respectively, wandered into the camp of non-voters.
the AfD increased in all seven categories, however, is not due to changes in choice behavior: you stepped in 2018 for the first Time in a Bavarian state election and won, therefore, to 580,000 votes. Your biggest increase of 190,000 voters who voted in 2013 for the other parties (including Left). Also very successful was the party’s previous non-voters (180.000) and CSU-voters (160.000) courted. Of the Free voters, she was able to gain 60,000 votes of the SPD to 30,000, as well as Greens and the FDP 10,000 each.
The Free voters, a total of more than 270,000 voters will gain by far the most from the CSU (170.000). In addition, former voters of the SPD and non-voters (70,000), as well as by the FDP and the other parties (including Left, 10,000 each) decided to vote this year for the Free voters. No exchange with the Green, only on the AfD, they lost about 60,000 voters.
The FDP won in the sum of 60,000 votes – however, without big outliers on both sides: the CSU to 40,000 voters came to vote, from the camp of non-voters to 30,000. Each of the 10,000 voters of the SPD and the other parties (including the Left) opted this year for the FDP, which lost 10,000 voters to the greens, Free voters and the AfD.
keep Track of all the latest developments in the state election in 2018, in Bavaria, here in our live Ticker.
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