a Little time? At the end of text there is a summary.

There are many people who can’t imagine the German economy in the absence of Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW. In fact, the three premium manufacturers are the figureheads of the industrial nation of Germany in the whole world, as guarantors of technical progress, jobs and prosperity. Don’t think so, what happened when you suffered the fate of General Motors or Chrysler, who had to sign up in the Wake of the 2008 financial crisis, even bankruptcy.

The Swiss consulting and forecasting-Institut and Prognos have you dared to think the worst. The current Germany-the Report deals with the Central disturbing factors, which could make all of the long-term predictions for the development of the economy in Germany and worldwide, may come to naught. The distortions in the global trade, as well as the consequences of global warming – and the decline of the car industry in Germany.

in order To panic attacks and Gasping prevent, emphasizes the study Director Oliver Ehrentraut right from the start that it is just mind games: “The scenario analyzes the consequences that arise when Managers miss in the car industry, the foreseeable changes in the structure and thus in the competition to fall behind,” he explains. In principle, the study is, therefore, comparable to a stress test in which banks and insurance companies from time to time to calculate how well you are prepared for the worst case.

Now some of the German Bank would be in the event of your demise no tears to cry – a lot of drivers, the Bavarian motor works. And yet, a collapse of the German Bank would have much more far-reaching impact on the economy as a whole as the of an industrial group such as BMW. Because of plant closures, layoffs and loss of revenue impact, at least on the economy as a whole – far less serious than the disturbances in the financial system, the fraction of a Bank associated with the. The shock waves moved the Bankruptcy of the US Bank Lehman Brothers in the autumn of 2008, are an impressive proof.

Although a number of Backups have been moved in since the financial crisis into the System, so an event not to be repeated, but the principle remains: A tremor in the financial world would shatter more than the failure of a large producer in the industry.

The scenario of Prognos-Economists for the car industry, you can draw as evidence. Accordingly, the carmaker would lose by 2045, approximately 40 percent of its sales. About 260,000 jobs were lost.

In the result, the other industries would suffer branches – but not nearly as strong as one would expect. The creation of value outside of the auto industry would be reduced by 15 billion euros, that is just 2.2 percent compared to the normal scenario without car failures. The number of jobs would decrease in these areas, to 70,000 (-1.3 percent).

Even the car manufacturers closely associated areas such as car dealers and garages would only be affected to a similar degree as the Rest of the industry (because, of course, competitors from abroad in place of the existing market leaders would occur). In sum, the researchers calculate, would lose the economy of around 4.6 per cent of their value added, and roughly 740,000 jobs.

Ehrentraut not assumes, however, that it would come to this. “We, in the reality, of course, that the economy would react if the German car manufacturer fell behind in the competition,” he explains. In the result of such adjustment processes, new jobs, then of course.

well, reassuring As that scenario sounds, in the view of the Whole, the authors make the impact on the directly affected regions. This could be serious, as the experience of other industries teaches branches. In spite of extensive state support and intensive efforts for the establishment of new companies, for example, the Saarland, the Ruhr or Lusatia have not recovered from the decline of steel and mining companies.

battery production has been price

So far it has not come in the case of the car industry, is Convinced that the Prognos experts. Because the adopted scenario could be prevented if the people responsible would include the changing conditions in a timely manner in their strategic planning.

the changeover to alternative drive technologies and the struggle with new competitors like Tesla from the USA or Nio and Byton from China of course in the front line. The Know-how is lacking, although at present, when it comes to cars in large quantities at a consistent quality to the finished. For that, you are free from the burden of having outdated technology in your own home as trouble-free unwinding.

the invoice the car need to carry corporations also the changing demands of the society in which the car is losing its once Central role for the mobility gradually. With cars, many experts agree that you earn in the future, less money, more with services around the way from A to B. Also in this field of strong competitors such as Google, Apple and Baidu are already available, the struggle for market shares.

in Addition, the digitization of the cars according to the findings of the Prognos experts will also strengthen the role of the suppliers. What is obvious in principle, because all of the talents, about the car of the future must have, can’t develop the car manufacturer alone.

A box have to give the auto companies practically now price: The manufacturing of his own cells for the batteries of electric cars. BMW head of development Klaus Fröhlich sees this as a Problem, as long as the group can work together with suppliers eye to eye. The Munich-based group is therefore € 200 million for a development center, in order to understand the chemistry in the battery cell. Similar plans also exist in the Volkswagen, and Daimler.

Daimler has secured, moreover, the battery supply by 2030. The long-term contract, you can be around 20 billion euros in costs. The contracts were formulated in such a way that you could have the latest cell technology, it said. If this is true, is not going to happen, the scenario of Prognos researchers think it will be so soon.

experts of the consulting company Prognos have calculated, what would happen if the BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen would lose the connection. Result: The consequences for the economy were far less serious than one would initially fear. Each of the regions suffering from the effects, however, to feel much clearer.

Sam Yoon has many years of experiences in journalism. He has covered such areas as information technology, science, sports and politics. Yoon can be reached at 82-2-6956-6698.