With the end of the CSU-alone government in Bavaria will have the black-red coalition in the Federal government is still expected to have fewer of their own votes in the Bundesrat than in the past. In the countries of the chamber, – in addition to the Bundestag the second legislation, the instance has the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU), has Long not have its own majority. However, the proportion for the Berlin coalition will go back even further: from 22 to 16 votes.
For decisions in the Federal Council is the absolute majority of 35 of the 69 votes needed. Since it is red government in Bavaria to the black, the include the free state, in future, to the much stronger neutral Block in the Bundesrat. In this country governments, the Berlin government parties is at least involved. The Block has a soon to be 53 votes.
The Green of the DPA, The big winner could empty comment state election in Bavaria: From the is’ Free voters, “The CSU will bite”
among the supporters of the Federal government chamber in the countries of the four Major coalitions in lower Saxony (6 votes), Saxony (4), Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (3) and in the Saarland (3). An opposition bloc, with the country governments, which is not a party to the Grand coalition belongs in Berlin.
you want to answer the Sunday question for the Federal government? Vote here:
How does the Civey methodology? The opinion research Institute Civey works with a multi-stage fully automated process. All representative real-time surveys will not be asked to play in a Germany-wide network of more than 20,000 web sites (“river sampling”), so only users of SPIEGEL ONLINE. Everyone can online to participate in the interviews and will be taken into account with his answers in the representative results, provided he / she has registered. From these users Civey draw a quota sample, which ensures that it corresponds to, for example, in the characteristics of age, gender and population of the population density. In a third step, the results of which are attitudes weighted finally, after other socio-demographic factors and Value of those Voting, in order to correct distortions and to prevent tampering. For more information, you can find also in the Civey FAQ. Why is registration necessary? The registry helps to weight the responses, and enables a result for the polls, the electoral population in Germany representative. Each participant is asked for his gender, year of birth, and place of residence. Then everyone can give his opinion in surveys on various topics. How will the results be representative? The response of each participant is weighted so that the results of a survey, for the population is representative. In the Sunday issue and that the government monitor this population consists of the voting age population in Germany. The weighting is done fully automatically on the Basis of the personal information during the registration process, as well as the history of previous responses by a user. For more Details on the methodology are available in the Civey-white paper. Can be reached online at all enough participants? Opinion polls are usually conducted by telephone or online. For the validity of the results is crucial, how many people can be reached and how many participate in a survey, if you are approached. Internet connections and landline connections, are widely used in Germany is currently about the same distance – at around 90 per cent of households, mobile phones in 95 per cent. The willingness to Participate in all of the methods in the single-digit percentage range, especially low estimates for the phone surveys.
There is, therefore, in both methods, a group of people, which can not be achieved, because it has either no connection to the network or does not participate in the survey would like to participate. Therefore, for a meaningful result, must be addressed, a lot of people. Civey-surveys are currently involved in addition to MIRROR ONLINE in more than 20,000 other websites, including the different media. This ensures that all groups of the population may be reached. How can I tell the quality of a result? Pending the outcome of a survey is to be representative, must be sufficient to attend to many different people. If this is already managed, makes Civey transparent by given to each survey result is a statistical probability of errors. Also, the number of participants and the survey time will be published for each survey. What does it mean when the colored areas are overlapping in the graphics? Our graphics show the statistical error is shown as a colored interval. This interval shows, with which uncertainty in a survey’s value is connected. For example, you can’t tell in the Sunday question of exactly how much percent would get a party at an election, however, but an interval specify, in the result with high probability. The intervals of two survey overlap values, then, strictly speaking, no statements can be made about the difference. In the case of the Sunday question that is: Are the survey values of the two parties so close together that their error intervals overlap, one cannot conclude, which would cut of the two is currently the better choice. What happens to my data? The personal data of the user are encrypted and stored on German servers, and remain confidential. They are only used to weight the responses, and to ensure that the polls are not being manipulated. To prevent this, uses Civey statistical as well as technical methods.
Who is behind Civey?
At this point, readers in the App and on the mobile/stationary Website will have the opportunity to a representative Civey-survey. Civey is an Online opinion research Institute based in Berlin. The Start-up works with different partners, including the “daily mirror next to the MIRROR ONLINE”, “Cicero”, “Friday”, and Change.org. Civey is through the funding programme ProFit of the Investitionsbank Berlin and the European regional development Fund, funded .
video analysis of the impact of the Bavaria election to the Grand coalition:
Video OMER MESSINGER/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock