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In the world of diplomats, it is sometimes the small Gestures that send a particularly clear message. So it is currently between the EU and the British. On Tuesday the British from under the house on the withdrawal of the contract, the Prime Minister, Theresa May, with the other 27 EU countries. It almost seems as there is in Brussels to advance a vow of silence. Now make no mistake, the Mays life even more difficult, is the motto.
Nevertheless, some barely noticeable sign from the EU Commission. Contrary to all expectations, the EU authority continued on Wednesday, the so-called signature of the method to the Brexit-the exit contract. This is normal business, if a contract is to be binding. However, the EU-member countries had expected the Start of the procedure originally only for next week, so after the vote in London.
Now, however, the Jean-Claude Juncker and his commissioners probably thought the same, is the message to the British even more: dear friends, at the Brexit-the exit of the contract, there is nothing to shake more, nothing at all, even if the agreement has not yet been ratified final.
May is expected to make further concessions
hope these renegotiations May likely hope for, namely, should you Deal in the lower house by fall. Possible consequences would be political Chaos in London, possibly even a crash of the pound and exchange rates. But no, two days later, Aug hits the other heads of state and government of the EU’s regular December summit. What would be closer to the EU extort a few concessions, so that a possible second vote on the exit contract works better? British media reports, in any case, no longer about such Considerations in Downing Street.
The only Problem is: the Brussels ‘ willingness to help is manageable. No one has an interest in the months-long negotiated exit contract re-draw. Too difficult, it was not at the end, to achieve only an agreement with the British, but also to keep the rest of the Europeans. The Spanish government wanted to go with a grotesquely ill-planned foray into last-Minute Changes due to Gibraltar, and France was angry because of the fishing rights on a re-edition of all these discussions, no one has the desire in the EU.
discussion of a political Declaration of intent
the situation is Different in the political Declaration, which is attached to the exit of the contract. It is more or less written down, in detail, how the British and the Rest of the EU to introduce to their future relationship. However, May can not expect that the EU adds just a few sentences. The British claim, for example, a Passage add, promises to continue to “frictionless trade”, i.e. free trade, have rejected the Germans and the French in the past, strictly. Unobstructed trade in the EU internal market, and the want to leave the British.
but Above all, the policy statement plays a decisive role in the British debate. The main point of attack of Mays enemies on all sides of the so-called Backstop, the controversial emergency solution to avoid a hard limit in Northern Ireland remains.
to avoid that, in the context of this emergency solution to Northern Ireland from the Rest of the United Kingdom is cleaved, May, ultimately, that her whole country remains in a customs Union with the EU, but also it is a lot of criticism in the British Parliament now. Because as long as the British are so tied to the EU, you can not – as hoped – unhindered by the bureaucracy in Brussels free trade agreements with the Rest of the world to complete.
Any Change here could help you May safely, in order to draw fickle Brexiteers in a possible second vote to their side. Only: in the EU, There is no willingness of the delicate Backstop-topic and everything that has to do with them.
rescue by a judge?
formulated in a Simplified, one can say: The help, the might need to May from Brussels actually, you will not get from the EU. And what the EU can offer, is unlikely to be sufficient to improve may’s chances in the vote in Brussels.
but Perhaps the decisive help May come not by diplomats or politicians, but by judges. Not entirely coincidentally, a day before the vote in London, the European court of justice in Luxembourg will decide on Monday which so far is completely theoretical question, whether the British could withdraw their notice of resignation, nor one-sided. From the looks of it, the answer is the judge: Yes.
you May get this notice, there is a tremendous pressure against the Brexiteers in the Hand Either, so you could say that you supported my Deal or there is no Brexit.