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There are decisive hours for the UK and Prime Minister Theresa May. After months of negotiations, the matches under the house via the negotiated Brexit Treaty with the EU. Since an early lunch, the deputies are debating already – starting from 21 o’clock is expected to make a decision. British media are reporting that dozens of politicians of your own party want to vote against the Deal. A majority is not therefore expected.
“I believe with every fiber of my Being, that the course I have set is the right one for our country and our people”, May said after the presentation of the agreement in November. However, it has failed, a majority of parliamentarians in this course commit. May is possibly in front of the shambles of their policy.
What you need to know before the vote – the Overview.
The improbable majority
review: Actually, would the deputies on the 11. December to vote on the withdrawal agreement. But May postponed the date in the short term – you saw then no Chance of a majority. The additional weeks have not improved your Situation. A majority for the May negotiated agreement is considered to be unlikely.
Because MPs from all parties to reject the Deal: About a hundred members of your own group have spoken out against it. Although some conservative doubters should want to vote now but for the contract. In the rejection front, the majority of the members of the opposition Labour party, the Scottish SNP and the liberal Democrats in a row but still.
May be needed 320 votes for their Deal in the lower house. The Alliance of your Tories, with the Northern Irish DUP comes to 326 seats.
Like your Standing in the party to scratch, got them already to be felt in December: The group internal no-confidence vote of the Conservative trust voted 117 of 316 Tory MPs against the party boss.
May had warned the MPs on Monday in a speech strongly against a rejection of the Treaty. The agreement is “not perfect” and “a compromise”, she admitted. “But if the history books are written, look the people to the decision of this Parliament, and ask: Have we obeyed the vote of the people, to leave the European Union?
The Irish border as the core of the problem
The biggest point of criticism of may’s opponents in the draft Treaty formulated stopgap for the border to Ireland.
During the negotiations in Brussels had insisted on a so-called Backstop. This is a stopgap: Should London and the EU in the further discussions until the end of 2020, a free trade agreement to some, would remain the UK in the EU customs Union and Northern Ireland in the internal market. In this way, a hard limit on the island of Ireland should be avoided (read more here).
especially the Brexit-hardliners emphasize, however, that the United Kingdom could remain forever in the EU chained. Moreover, they fear the unity of the UK, there should be for Northern Ireland, a special scheme.
vote of no confidence, new elections, renegotiations – the scenarios
The vote is expected to plunge the United Kingdom and the EU lower in the crisis: a new start-up in Parliament, in a vote of censure against May, a chaotic exit the EU – or even a departure from Brexit.
After a referendum defeat May is committed to a last week accepted the Parliament’s request, within three days of a “Plan B”.
your defeat is not crashing, could you try to get further concessions from the EU and then have a second attempt for the adoption of the Brexit Treaty. Several EU countries have already significantly do not want to renegotiate. May not get the Deal despite all the Attempts of the Parliament, threatens the 29. March 2019, a chaotic exit the EU without an agreement.
The opposition Labour party wants to apply in the case of a rejection of “soon” in a vote of censure against May, as leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn announced. According to media reports, this could already be the case on Wednesday. Should May for a fall of no confidence, would bring the house 14 days a new government majority. Otherwise, there must be new elections.
EU-friendly members are willing to enforce with a ” no ” to the Treaty in a second Referendum. Many of Brexit-hard-liners in Mays party want to exit, however, prefer a disorderly EU as a negotiated contract.