Brexit All of article

The Countdown is on: If no one pulls the emergency brake is on 29. March 2019, the Brexit completed – in whatever Form. As a Worst-Case scenario of leaving the EU currently has no contractual hedging, the so-called hard or No-Deal-Brexit. For a long time as hardly conceivable dismissed, also seems to currently have much to suggest. Theresa may’s attempt to find a majority in Parliament for the EU-negotiated Deal, ended with the crashing down of the most government’s defeat of the English history.

Since then, A further increase in the already previously falsely for total held for helplessness happens, what you thought hardly possible: whether and how to start now what to do with this Brexit. Thus, allegations of weight gain, the government May have prepared the country and its public service inadequate to the possible consequences of an unregulated EU-apply to exit.

You know, since the autumn of 2018, as by dussel, the existence of an emergency plan called “Operation Yellowhammer” (“Operation gold Bunting”), it became known that the government had begun in May, to train officers on dealing with potential Brexitfolgen.

a Lot of Calming not came around, though: Apparently, the May-government is even assumed that the train could come to a Standstill. Also, speculation about possible food-Rationing or drug storage on the part of the government, were poorly suited to address the “Civil Servants” for a confident Brexit. Especially since the rumors did not correspond well with the facts: It is the British consumer, the seem to have started out of a growing fear of a Brexit-Chaos, to hamsters, doses, and pills.

Concrete action plans, the network of the public service from the government level down to the municipalities to each other and addressing possible Brexit-follow preparing could not were meanwhile known. Probably because there is so far little. However, the extent of planning that was required, “the planning of a war,” he was quoted on Saturday morning the “Guardian” of an allegedly high-level government employees: “The impact of No-Deal-Brexit on the System would be similar.”

After all, a lot of things moving in the meantime. Employees and officials of the public service had come in the last days in the enjoyment of training with the Cabinet Office, a kind of Secretariat of the government Cabinet. And the use in the identification of potential Brexit-follow not on forecasts, but at least on illustrative examples.

Brexit: so, like a volcanic eruption

all The best, what occurred to the government officials, because, obviously, the comparison of the Brexit with the Eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull. What could at least prevent a wide-scale discussion about it, after all, who can say?

as a reminder: The Eyjafjallajökull is a 1600-Meter-high volcano in Iceland, whose eruption in March/April 2010 threw so much ash into the air that the air traffic had to be discontinued in many Parts of Europe. From a British government point of view, this is completely surprising, not to predict volcanic eruption is, therefore, with the self-induced, even if so far largely plan-free Brexit comparable, because he had cascading consequences.

In clear text: such As playing with dominoes in the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull led to effects, which triggered other things. The interruption of air traffic brought to life in Iceland in large Parts to a standstill, but also ranged far beyond its borders.

a standstill? We get there

the UK Cabinet Office believes will succeed with the Brexit. However, according to “the Guardian”, the government authority that the Brexit-effects “would be significantly broader” than the effects of the volcanic ash rain. One is intuitively inclined to agree.

in fact, there is currently not a single serious scenario, in which the Brexit would immediately have a positive impact for the UK. In this regard, the Brexit, however, has very much in common with the Eyjafjallajökull: No man has an even remotely well-founded calculation, this is what has caused the fun really damage and cause. In the case of Eyjafjallajökull, the damage will vary, estimates of between a few million and several billion euros – depending on who you ask.

Similar to the Brexit: the British gross domestic product is between five and 17 percent collapse (depending on who you ask). Caused to be by an interruption of the transport routes (Na? All right? Eyjafjallajökull!), to leave the goods in the first months, in the extreme case, up to 13 percent of the current volume collapse (depending on who you ask).

Significantly cheaper Theresa Mays would be rejected EU-Brexit Deal have been computed, the British National Institute of Economic and Social Research in November. The May Deal, would have cost the British, therefore, per year, only 700 to 1100 pounds per nose. Anyway, perhaps the thing I like the volcano eruption at the end better than initially expected.

Britain’s public servants are Prepared now, Yes. Because you can only wish, still warm Eyjafjallajökull.

graphics to Brexit-Poker state-of-the negotiations, So it could go further

Sam Yoon has many years of experiences in journalism. He has covered such areas as information technology, science, sports and politics. Yoon can be reached at 82-2-6956-6698.