The opponents of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro offered a rather poor image. The Opposition was in disarray and largely discredited. The dominated national Assembly seemed to be disempowered. And Juan Guaidó was still a largely unknown young politician.
Only weeks later, much of the movement: players in the In – how abroad do not get tired to emphasize that the national Assembly is the last remaining democratically elected Institution in the country. Guaidó is considered by many as a beacon of hope, of the Opposition could. And the 35-year-old Chairman of the national Assembly, with a large rally against Maduro in the capital Caracas as the interim President of the country bring home.
Video: scenes from the trial of power in Venezuela
the political Situation in Venezuela was able to win in a short time, so dynamic, has a lot of reasons. One of them is, but in any case, the international support, the know Guaidó and the national Assembly. Because of the developments in Caracas to be followed abroad is highly attentive.
United States: Trump flirted with the “military Option”
Only a few minutes after Guaidó was appointed interim President, acknowledged the US President Donald Trump the leader of the opposition as the legitimate interim head of state. The decision had already short on practical consequences: The United States refused to allow the withdrawal of their envoys, although Maduro had been canceled after the recognition of Guaidós immediately diplomatic relations.
US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo not justified the refusal with the words: “The United States recognize the Maduro Regime as the government of Venezuela.” In the night to Friday, the foreign Ministry ordered then, however, the departure of the American diplomats would not be urgently needed in Venezuela.
the steps are The latest consequence of a confrontation course, by the Trump-government has for quite some time: As his National security adviser, John Bolton described the authoritarian Regime in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba as the “Troika of tyranny”. The President himself did not, in the past, a “military Option”. Add to that the sanctions, which the US government recently once again tightened.
support by Trump makes Guiadó in the country itself, but also vulnerable. After his inaugural speech as President of Parliament, had named Maduro, the opposition politician a “agent” of the United States. The proximity between Guaidó and the Trump-the government will make Maduro the summit for propaganda purposes, by representing himself as a victim of an imperialist conspiracy and his opponents as puppets of the United States.
Brazil: Bolsonaro is looking for the close to Trump’s
the pressure on Maduro has increased in the past few weeks, is also due to the fact that in Latin America, generally speaking, currently, a Lot of movement. This is true for Colombia, where, with Iván Duque is a right-wing President is in Power, but especially for the other important neighboring country of Venezuela, Brazil.
The new President of Jair Bolsonaro wants to curb the influence of China in the Region, as well as the left-wing ideologies. In terms of foreign policy, he therefore focuses on Trump. The Bolsonaro-bearing, in particular, foreign Minister Ernesto Araújo, and the President-son, Eduardo, is driving again and again, sharp rhetorical attacks against Maduro.
This course nourished the least speculation about a military Intervention from abroad. Such is likely to continue to be rather unlikely. Under Trump, and Bolsonaro, the USA and Brazil have become more predictable. Russia’s foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, for example, sees itself compelled to warn the US against a military Intervention in Venezuela.
Brazil recognized Guaidó as interim President – as well as Colombia, Paraguay, Chile, Peru, Argentina, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama and Ecuador.
An important country in the Region, however, remains neutral: Below its new President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico has returned to a policy of non-interference. After Guaidós one chwörung Mexico’s government said that the Situation in Venezuela was observed. The diplomatic relations to the country and the government nothing would change. López Obrador positioned himself as a possible mediator in the conflict.
China and Russia: aid for Maduro, with loans and weapons
Maduro has as well as other allies in the Region as well as outside. Cuba, already under Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, a close Partner, said the autocrat of his support.
Venezuela’s biggest creditor is China. Since 2008, the leadership invested in Beijing in infrastructure and oil Projects. Official Figures are not available. According to estimates, China will have invested more than 70 billion dollars in Venezuela. The country pays its debt to the industry intelligence Bloomberg, mostly with oil Supplies, tens of billions should, however, be still open. In September of last year, the governments of Maduro and China’s Xi Jinping signed new contracts.
Vladimir Putin (R), Russian President, Xi Jinping, President of China
The Kremlin supports Venezuela’s military as well as billions of credits. The reason is the geo-strategic importance in the Western hemisphere, as it were, “on the doorstep” of the USA, country located. Russian state companies have invested heavily in the mineral-rich country and no interest in a change of government that could interfere with your business relationships.
Moscow sent in the past, several long-range bombers to Caracas, most recently in mid-December, two nuclear-capable Tu-160 supersonic bomber. Under Chávez, Venezuela’s armor had sourced goods from Russia and this, in part, with Oil paid. Maduro has difficulties to pay the approximately $ 17 billion in debt to Russia. In search of money and protection, has made Venezuela from Russia and China.
Turkey and Iran: Erdogan holds up to Maduro, Tehran
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made his admiration for Maduro never tried to hide. And in the current situation of solid he is linearized with him. “Maduro, brother, stay strong, we are with you,” he said. “We are Maduro”, which became a Trend on Twitter in Turkey. Erdogan and Maduro, a similar policy combines understanding: Both of them are in the West, as autocrats decried that have undermined the Opposition press and the rule of law.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Under Maduro’s predecessor, Chavez has been Venezuela’s closest foreign policy ally of Iran outside of the Islamic world – and has remained so until today. Ideologically, both regimes share an aggressive Anti-Americanism. Quite handy they have a common interest in high Oil prices, both economies are largely Petro-exports.
Both governments have closed in the past 15 years, hundreds of bilateral agreements, including on military cooperation. In addition, both countries established a joint Bank, which is suspected to serve Tehran in the circumvention of international sanctions. Also, the Iran-financed and highly armed Hezbollah militia have long been set in Venezuela and the country, among other things, money laundering.