Donald Trump summed up briefly, as he said last August his Afghanistan strategy.

“We will attack,” said the US President at the army base, Fort Myer, Virginia. And added: The consequences of a rapid withdrawal of the roughly 14,000 locally stationed American soldiers were not predictable, therefore, would continue to be forces in the Hindu Kush.

With the use of it is not a question of a Nation to build, he said. The goal of his government was it, after 17 years of war, rather, the fight against terrorists. It should be prevented that Afghanistan could again become a haven for Islamist fighters, and thus a threat to the United States, as it was al-Qaeda under Osama Bin Laden.

A week later, the Taliban launched an Offensive on the city of Ghazni. They had begun a month earlier, to speak directly with U.S. diplomats in the Emirate of Qatar on the future of Afghanistan. The Islamist militia has a dual strategy, therefore, relies on military strikes, and diplomacy – as well as the Trump-government.

rapprochement between the Taliban and the United States

at the beginning of the week, after numerous Meetings with the Taliban, but without the participation of government representatives from Kabul, the U.S. head of delegation Zalmay Khalilzad is now one of cautious optimism.

Zalmay Khalilzad

There is “significant progress,” he told the New York Times, the fundamentals of an agreement had been worked out. U.S. Secretary of defense Patrick Shanahan described the negotiations as “encouraging”. The core points at issue in the talks, are clear:

A country can be further armistice before the presidential elections in the summer, the full retreat the international troops within 18 months, and the question of how to prevent international terrorist groups use Afghanistan as a base for attacks in the West.

it is Less clear how a rapprochement between the parties to the conflict in these three points can be achieved. The reasons for this are manifold:

The Taliban reject the direct talks with the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani categorically, calling you, however, in a televised address on Monday. The government in Kabul gave also to recognize again and again that she feels pushed by the United States in front of the head, because you have no say has in the planning of the post-war order. The US government and the Nato refuse an immediate withdrawal of international forces , what was the result of a truce with the Taliban is unlikely.

Islamists in control meanwhile, around half of the country. Almost weekly it comes to battles. According to the news Agency dpa special forces, the government freed only in the night to Monday, 38 people from a prison of the Taliban in the Ghazni province.

The “butcher of Kabul”. President

The continuing violence is the main reason for the postponement of the presidential elections by three months to July this year Since 2014, have fallen, according to the government in Kabul to 45,000 Afghan soldiers. The civilian population is suffering from the Fight and under extreme poverty: More than half of the Afghans, according to official statistics, every day, only the equivalent of a Dollar to Survive.

This is the ideal breeding ground for extremists, especially in a country where the average age of the population is 19 years of age. President Ghani wants to be elected again in July. Next to him, a number of key personalities in the country for the election, including the exile returned Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar

The 69-year-old Warlord and leader of the Islamists force Hesb-i-Islami acquired during the civil war in the nineties it the nickname “the butcher of Kabul”.

the rise of the Taliban, the rivalry between the warring tribes of Afghanistan and the disastrous situation of the civilian population, raise the risk that the presidential elections of violence are overshadowed – in a similar way to the parliamentary elections at the end of 2018.

Trump is likely to have in the face of this situation, no great interest in most of the U.S. troops still hold out for long in the Hindu Kush. Similar to that in Syria he might seek a retreat and try to reach his goal – the fight against international terrorism with special forces and commando operations. A similar strategy for the United States are already in Libya and in Yemen – without success.

Sam Yoon has many years of experiences in journalism. He has covered such areas as information technology, science, sports and politics. Yoon can be reached at 82-2-6956-6698.