For Nicolás Maduro. The Opposition calls him a “usurper”, Venezuela’s national Assembly, refuses to swear in the autocrat. And President Juan Guaidó has, as a transitional President bring home.
But even in the midst of the crisis of the left, authoritarian head of state has to allies. In this Interview, the Latin America expert, Claudia Zilla talks about the political pillars of the regime and what is for a change of power is necessary.
To the Person Claudia Zilla Claudia Zilla is a political scientist with a focus on Latin America. Since 2005, she is researcher at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und politik (SWP). Since 2012, she directs the research group America the SWP.
MIRROR ONLINE: wife Zilla, the pressure on President Maduro has increased in the past few weeks. What keeps him politically in Power?
Claudia Zilla: is A crucial factor: the armed forces. The Regime Maduro is a civilian-military Regime. The military is a Central actor in the policy Offices and mandates, but also in the economy, at the top of many companies. As long as the forces stay on the side of Maduro, it is to be expected that it comes to regime change.
MIRROR ONLINE: The Repression in the country has increased in recent years. Which means the Regime?
Zillah: , The Repression is evident in the imprisonment of the opposition, in the circumcision of freedom of the press through censorship or economic harassment. Furthermore, the opposition demonstrators are attacked on the street. This is done by the armed forces and official members of the security apparatus. On the other, but also by the “colectivos” – these are irregular forces: paramilitaries, which apply for the purposes of the government in the street violence. Finally, in the prisons where political opponents are tortured.
MIRROR ONLINE: What is the role of the Cubans the person responsible for safety service?
Zillah: The cooperation between Cuba and Venezuela in this area goes back to the government of Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez. At that time, there was a kind of Pact: Venezuela supported Cuba through Oil deliveries on favorable terms. In return, Cuba was awarded with the revolutionary Fidel Castro at the helm of the Venezuelan government, as an ideological symbol of power. In addition, the Cubans shared certain methods and techniques, and secret service with the Venezuelan security forces and trained them.
MIRROR ONLINE: For some time now, Venezuela is in crisis. How does this affect the cooperation?
Zillah: I doubt that we are currently in a Phase of particularly strong cooperation between Cuba and Venezuela are living through. Today, Venezuela is not in a position to support ideologically related countries financially. Venezuela is self-suffering in the crisis, the lack of Oil. Chávez and Fidel Castro are both dead. The staged joint appearances in Public, it is no longer under Maduro and Cuba’s current President Díaz-Canel. But what have learned the Venezuelans in the field of intelligence activity and Repression of the Cuban people, remains.
MIRROR ONLINE: How likely is it that in the coming weeks is not enough Chávistas, the form Maduro’s political base, switch sides?
Zillah: Here I see a large obstacle. The peaks of the regime, whether it is civilians or the military, are heavily involved in illegal transactions – drug trafficking, smuggling, and the violation of human rights. This means that no one will leave Maduro’s camp without a guarantee of immunity or a penalty reduction. There must be an incentive for these people to have extremely much to lose, to give up their Power. Therefore, it will be without any negotiations and concessions to the very top of the regime, no way out of this crisis. In the lower row, the hangers-on who have not taken the relevant decisions in the Regime, there can be Defections. But for the leadership, incentives must be created so that it is worth it to switch pages.
MIRROR ONLINE: Now Guaidó has not ruled out in an Interview with an Amnesty for Maduro even if this should peacefully cede. In view of the crimes committed that would endure for many members of the opposition hard to come by. Could the Amnesty question, the Opposition, which seemed to last so United as it has been for a long time, tearing apart?
Zilla : divergences to this question within the Opposition cannot be ruled out. This is, however, under the pressure of time: you must use the Momentum of the new political momentum and international attention. With the offer of an Amnesty that includes Maduro, has won by the Opposition, perhaps more than to lose. The prospect of an Amnesty is not enough; this needs to be fleshed out in negotiations, and developing more trust between the parties to the conflict is necessary, as it currently exists. A minimum confidence should be built up.
MIRROR ONLINE: It came up in the past few days, to protests in poorer neighborhoods. These were in the past, the strongholds of Chavism. What is shown in this development?
Zillah: If it would be free and fair elections in Venezuela, would lose the Chavistas. The majority of the population stands behind this Regime. The economic and political situation is so bad that it needs no explanation, which is why the poor go on the road. What needs clarification, is, rather, why are there still citizens, the sympathy for the Regime.